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In the cold winter of the automobile industry, even if it comes to the traditional period of stimulating consumption of "gold nine silver ten", it cannot avoid the influence of continuous depressed car buying mood. The China Automobile Circulation Association released the "China Auto Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" report on October 31. The auto dealer inventory warning index in October 2019 was 62.4%, up 3.8% from September and down 4.5% year-on-year. The inventory warning index is still above the warning line.

It is worth noting that the inventory warning index of 62.4% is the second highest level this year after the inventory warning index of 63.6% in February, reflecting the high inventory of auto dealers again.

According to the association, marketing activities such as auto shows in September and dealer impulse at the end of the quarter overdraft part of the market demand; during the National Day of November, consumers go out to play, dealers 'customer collection volume has declined; the northern region enters the busy farming season, rural consumers to the store volume declined, and this year some areas of grain harvest, rural consumers' demand for car purchases has been suppressed. In addition, some areas will hold large-scale auto shows in November, manufacturers and dealers will increase their promotion efforts, resulting in consumers holding a wait-and-see attitude. Therefore, the automobile market pressure in October is greater, and the competitive environment further deteriorates.

Association survey shows that the market performance in October compared with September slightly declined, and did not meet dealer expectations, market pressure is still very large,"gold nine gold, silver ten difficult silver". As November approaches the end of the year, manufacturers and dealers will increase their promotion efforts to complete the annual task, and dealers will further increase their vehicles.

According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, China's automobile production and sales volume has declined year-on-year for 15 consecutive months. The sales volume of new energy vehicles with high subsidy and high growth was only 80,000 vehicles in September, down 34.2% year-on-year, and its production and sales volume also declined for three consecutive months. Therefore, both traditional automobile enterprises and new energy automobile enterprises are facing great tests.

In this environment, the honorary president of the Automotive Engineering Society Fu Yuwu analysis believes that the automobile industry has not yet reached the bottom, next year the situation is not optimistic, hope that automobile enterprises can make early preparations.

Fu Yuwu said that the economic transformation has brought a lot of pressure, and the knockout round has begun for automobile enterprises. Without subsidies in the future, it is only a matter of time before some automobile enterprises are marginalized. He believes that no matter how big the Chinese market is, there is no room for hundreds of automobile factories. Now, whether it is independent, joint venture or foreign-funded automobile enterprises, they are facing the market test together. Market elimination is fair, which is also conducive to the merger and reorganization of China's automobile industry. The most important thing at this stage is change. Under this background, car enterprises without brand, core technology and capital will fall one after another.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, said earlier that "the consumption of the automobile market is extremely poor, and the slowdown in Chinese consumption is caused by housing prices, while other factors are superimposed." But the erosive effect of real estate on social wealth is very serious. The high growth in debt in recent years has had a great impact on residents 'purchasing power, especially on the auto market." Cui Dongshu also believes that real estate continues to rise in 2019, and the automobile market is seriously depressed. This year, we should further implement the policy of stimulating automobile consumption. The current consumption board is automobile consumption, which is a huge opportunity. Only by suppressing housing and promoting vehicles can we realize stable and sustainable economic development.

Some experts analyze that China's macroeconomic growth is slowing down at present. If there is no strong policy subsidy support and the stimulus policy to pull the market to the ground, automobile production and sales will decline by at least 5% in the whole year.

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