AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)11/17 Report--

On November 16, at the Development Forum of Automobile Dealers Group at the annual meeting of China Automobile Circulation Industry in 2019, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of FIFA, released the report "Analysis and Prospect of Automobile Market 2020".

In October, 1.843 million narrow passenger cars were sold nationwide, down 5.7 per cent from a year earlier and up 3.5 per cent from a month earlier, according to sales data released by the Federation of passengers. In terms of new energy vehicles, the market has seen negative growth for four consecutive months, with wholesale sales of 66000 new energy passenger vehicles in October, down 45.4 per cent from a year earlier and up 1 per cent from a month earlier.

The Federation said that sales of new energy vehicles continued to decline, mainly due to the increase in sales costs caused by the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles in June.

After the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, sales of new energy vehicles continued to decline from July to September, causing concerns in the industry about the development prospects of new energy vehicles. The decline in new energy sales from July to September this year has gradually widened, falling by 3.8%, 21.7% and 34.8%, respectively. In October, sales of new energy vehicles fell 45.4% from a year earlier.

The Federation believes that the economic situation in November is still complex and grim, and it is difficult to expect a significant rebound in the overall scale of retail sales in the car market in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. However, according to the comprehensive calculation and estimate of the member units of the Federation of passengers, with the gradual appearance of the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction by the state in 2020, the automobile market will continue to develop in the direction of high quality, with cars expected to grow by 1% and passenger cars by 1%. The challenge target for sales of new energy vehicles is 2 million, and the neutral judgment is about 1.6 million.

According to the HKIFA, the decline in sales of new energy vehicles is partly due to the impact of the decline of subsidies, and according to relevant policies, China will completely abolish all subsidies for new energy vehicles after 2020. At that time, the production costs of car companies will further increase, and it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will decline off a cliff by 2020. From this point of view, there is still a certain contradiction in the view of the Federation of passengers.

As of October this year, the sales of new energy vehicles in China was 947000, an increase of 10.1% over the same period last year. At the beginning of this year, the China Automobile Association predicted that the sales of new energy vehicles would be 1.6 million. However, after the decline of new energy subsidies, the sales of new energy vehicles continued to decline, and the China Automobile Association reduced its sales target to 1.5 million. So far, the completion rate of new energy vehicles is only 63.13%, which is still a long way from the sales target set at the beginning of the year.

However, some people in the industry believe that the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles will help auto companies to increase the research and development and creation of new energy vehicles, because the current automobile market reshuffle is accelerated, and if the products do not have enough strength, they will be eliminated by the market.

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