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I believe what you have heard most is that electric cars are the trend of the times, and electric cars will catch up with fuel cars in a few years, and even many studies have shown that the price of electric vehicles may be the same as that of gasoline cars in the next five years. But according to a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, electric cars will be more expensive than fuel cars by 2030.

MIT research shows that there are defects in the conclusion that electric vehicles will be cheaper than fuel vehicles in the future. In the car market, at least in the next five years, the price of electric vehicles will not be the same as that of fuel vehicles. As long as electric vehicles rely on lithium-ion batteries, it is impossible to achieve the same cost as gasoline cars.

Lithium-ion battery is the main power source of electric vehicles at present, and its cost is also 30% of the total cost of electric vehicles. As more and more enterprises mass-produce lithium-ion batteries, making their costs close to the upper limit set by the cost of raw materials, under such circumstances, the steady decline in the cost of lithium-ion batteries may slow down the cost of electric vehicles in the next few years.

From the cost analysis, by 2030, the battery cost of 320km of an electric car will be higher than the cost of 35000 yuan of fuel vehicles. If you want the same price as fuel vehicles, you have to reduce the cost of lithium batteries by 30%. In other words, the current price of lithium batteries ranges from $175 to $300 per kilowatt-hour, falling to $100 per kilowatt-hour to be equivalent to fuel vehicles.

According to the future trend of international material prices, although the cost will not change by 2030, with the gradual increase in the number of electric vehicles, the demand for battery packs will continue to rise in the future, and the global demand for lithium-ion batteries will also rise sharply. according to expectations, the cost of lithium batteries may only fall to $124 per kilowatt-hour, still higher than the standard of $100.

Unless an alternative fuel for lithium battery can be found in the future, the cost can be reduced. For example, lithium-metal batteries, solid-state batteries or lithium-sulfur batteries, but for these batteries, some industry insiders say that each type of battery is still in the early stage of development, so it is still a question whether it can replace lithium-ion batteries by 2030.

In any case, electric cars may be the future trend, or new energy vehicles. As Honda CEO Baxiang Takahiro said, electric vehicles will not become mainstream in a short period of time. In addition to solving the cost problem, there will also be problems such as battery life and charging infrastructure. Electric vehicles will face more obstacles, and hybrid vehicles may be the most suitable new energy models for the transition period.

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