AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)12/09 Report--

In order to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of the new energy vehicle industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued the New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035) (draft for soliciting opinions). The deadline for soliciting opinions is December 9. The most significant change in this consultation draft is to increase the share of new energy vehicles in the year's new car sales from 20% to 25% in 2025.

At the same time, in this consultation, it is also proposed to improve double points, establish a mechanism to connect with the carbon trading market, improve preferential tax policies such as the purchase tax on new energy vehicles, and increase the layout of fuel cell vehicles. 40% of the sales target was cancelled by 2030.

According to the 25% new car target, it means that based on the total car sales of 35 million in 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will increase from 700 to 8.75 million, an average increase of 1.75 million vehicles per year. However, according to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of new energy vehicles in the first 10 months of this year were only 947000, accounting for 4.59% of the total car sales of 20.652 million, and the proportion of existing sales still needs to be increased fivefold.

In the current depressed car market, new energy vehicles have suffered four consecutive declines, whether traditional car companies or new power car companies feel the slow Alexander. For example, BYD's new energy models fell by 62.7% in November compared with the same period last year. New energy models are not as good as fuel models, which makes people wonder.

However, according to Xu Haidong, assistant secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, it is still possible to achieve the goal of accounting for 25% of new energy vehicle sales in 2025. The current decline in new energy vehicle sales is only short-term, and the previous sales performance has been very good. The overall decline in sales will make car companies reflect on new energy vehicles and find better ways to deal with them. At the same time, it is believed that it can be achieved with the support of the policies issued by the state.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation, also believes that whether the 25% sales target can be achieved still depends on whether the government can further formulate policies to guide the industry and fully stimulate the development vitality of the new energy market.

In addition, as mentioned in this opinion draft, increasing the layout of new energy vehicles means that multiple lines will be used in parallel to achieve the goal, not only electric vehicles or hybrid vehicles, but also hydrogen-fueled models, will support the development. However, in terms of the current number, pure electric is still the most potential.

In the first 10 months of 2019, 750000 pure electric vehicles were sold, compared with 196000 plug-in hybrid vehicles and only 1327 fuel cell vehicles, according to the China Automobile Association. As for which new energy model will become the main type in the future will be decided by the market.

In fact, under the environment of the sharp decline in the overall new energy market, the new energy target is not lowered but increased, only for one reason, that is, the country's strategic confidence in new energy vehicles has not weakened. The country is still like an "invisible hand" supporting the new energy vehicle market.

Although the new energy vehicles are in the "darkest moment", it is a general trend for fuel vehicles to withdraw from the stage of history. With the introduction of fuel vehicle ban policies one after another, the "darkest moment" of new energy vehicles may be the arrival of a new inflection point. As for whether it can be turned or not, judging from the current situation, it is highly unlikely.

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