AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)12/09 Report--

2019 has entered the last month, the car market is still difficult to change the downward trend this year. Today, the Federation of passengers and passengers released passenger car sales data for November. According to the data, domestic narrow passenger car production in November was 2.1252 million, up 1.5% from the same period last year; sales were 1.9368 million, down 4.1% from the same period last year, falling for the fifth month in a row. From January to November, the cumulative production and sales of narrow passenger cars were 18.8163 million and 18.563 million respectively, down 10.8 per cent and 7.9 per cent from the same period last year.

From the perspective of the three major market segments, only the SUV market has achieved positive growth compared with the same period last year. In November, car sales were about 932300, down 9.0 per cent from a year earlier. SUV sales were about 888000, up 3.7 per cent from a year earlier and about 116400, down 16.5 per cent from a year earlier. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of narrow passenger cars in China was about 18.5629 million, down 7.9% from the same period last year.

Even if the whole market enters the traditional peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" this year, the trend has not been reversed, and the performance is not even as good as the traditional off-season in July and August this year. Since the policy switch between the five countries and six countries in June this year, domestic sales have been falling, only to achieve growth under the policy stimulus in June, and have been falling since then.

Su Hui, vice president of the China Automobile Circulation Association, once said: "after entering 2019, passenger car sales seem to be on the slide." Judging from the current data, it does confirm this.

In the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation of passengers, the retail market has not improved faster than expected, and retail sales are still in a weak trend in November, mainly due to the lack of consumer demand and the weak trend of winter recovery. The ability to buy cars and confidence have been temporarily affected, coupled with the recent improvement in the basic living standards of residents, the structural squeeze of consumption has increased, and the consumption enthusiasm of optional consumer goods such as cars is not high.

It is worth noting that car production, which has been growing at a low level since 2019, has shown signs of improvement, turning from a decline to an increase, the first positive growth in 16 consecutive months. From the perspective of the automotive industry, the output of SUV, MPV and other models has changed from a decline to an increase, of which the SUV model has become the only growing market segment this month, indicating that the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries continue to move forward.

KuaiBao, the production and sales data disclosed by a number of car companies in November and the first 11 months of this year, shows that the profits of some head car companies have bottomed out. The most typical is Geely, which bucked the trend this month, with total car sales of 143200 vehicles in November. an increase of 1% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month. Total sales in the first 11 months of this year were 1.2315 million, down 13 per cent from a year earlier.

According to industry insiders, the decline in passenger cars in the fourth quarter of this year showed a full-month narrowing trend, and is expected to become a regular employee in December. From the previous third-quarter results of a number of car companies, Geely Motor, Great Wall Motor and other parts of the head bicycle revenue and bicycle gross profit showed positive growth compared with the same period last year and month-on-month; in addition, the performance of the auto parts sector rebounded more clearly, and the number of enterprises whose profit growth rate changed from negative to positive in the third quarter continued to increase. It is expected that the auto sector will usher in a valuation repair market in the fourth quarter as the growth rate of industry sales becomes positive.

Judging the future trend, there are different forecasts among different institutions. Cui Dongshu believes that car sales are expected to grow by 1% and passenger cars by 1% in 2020, while Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Circulation Association, said that China's car sales will maintain a negative growth of 10% in 2020.

At present, the decline in the growth rate of the automobile industry is a fait accompli, but what we can see is that the recent decline in automobile production and sales has been narrowing, which means that the whole industry may "bottom out and rebound." as for the future market trend can only be left to the market to explain, after all, there are too many factors affecting the automobile industry.

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