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At the annual meeting of Chinese business leaders in 2019, Yao Yang, dean of the National Institute of Development of Peking University, proposed that "as long as traditional car companies start building electric cars, only one non-traditional electric car company in the world will survive, that is, Tesla. I'm afraid everyone else will die. I love cars, and those electric cars are still several grades behind traditional car companies, and it is impossible for them to survive. "

The point of view put forward by Yao Yang at the annual meeting is indeed too absolute, which has also caused some controversy, but there is also some truth.

It is not difficult to see that the views put forward by Yao Yang above are mainly aimed at the new forces of car-building in China. In its view, the electric car products of the new power of car-building are very different from the traditional car companies, so it is impossible to survive.

As we all know, the new force of car building is mainly committed to the development of pure electric vehicles, and its electric vehicle products have certain advantages over traditional models in appearance and intelligence, but pure electric vehicles belong to electrified products. therefore, it is basically not involved in the technology of engine and gearbox, and the biggest development bottleneck of a car may be the engine or gearbox.

At present, the more famous new car-building forces in China, such as NIO, Xiaopeng, Weima, and so on, have not entered the automobile field for a long time, so it is very difficult to accumulate relevant experience and technology. in most cases, it is through high salaries to dig executives or technicians from traditional car companies to enter the company.

In contrast, the development time of traditional automobile enterprises is much longer, similar to that of SAIC, Guangzhou Automobile, FAW, Dongfeng Automobile and other automobile companies in the automotive field is gradual, in this case, accumulated a lot of experience and technology, and the accumulation of this technology and experience is incomparable to the new forces of car-building. Therefore, the new power of car building to enter the automobile field to develop hybrid electric vehicle products is also regarded as a manifestation of "corner overtaking".

In addition, most of the new car-building forces have not yet obtained the "dual qualification" and can only be produced through contract manufacturing or through the purchase of companies to obtain the corresponding production qualifications. Of course, there are new forces that have acquired "dual qualifications", but it is not that without mass production, they are already on the edge of the market.

From the current market environment, as the shrinking market has led to a decline in sales and performance of many car companies, we have also formulated corresponding cost-reduction and efficiency plans to reduce costs through layoffs, product cuts and production lines.

Li Bin, founder of Xilai Automobile, said, "it costs a lot of money to build a car. If a start-up wants to build a car, 20 billion is a ticket." NIO has been developing in China for several years, but the current sales volume is still very unstable, profits are also sustained losses, it is difficult to form hematopoietic capacity, when to turn losses into profits is still unknown. NIO's current situation is enough to foresee the development of new car-building forces, and what NIO has experienced at present is also what other new car-building forces will experience.

It is worth noting that Tesla is also a member of the new car-building force, but why does Yao Yang think that Tesla is the only new car-building force that can survive?

It is understood that Tesla was first established in 2003. Tesla's development time is much longer than the current domestic mainstream car-building new forces, and he has accumulated a lot of experience and technology. Tesla is not without twists and turns, in fact, in Model 3 mass production, Tesla encountered great suffering, but under the leadership of Musk, Tesla finally survived.

There are still many problems in Tesla's products, such as safety problems caused by intelligent technology defects and product quality from time to time on Tesla, but Tesla's current development has indeed improved to a certain extent. According to data, Tesla's sales in China in the third quarter were US $669 million, up 60.40% from the same period last year, while those in the first three quarters totaled US $2.183 billion, up 51.07% from the same period last year. In the third quarter of this year, Tesla delivered about 97000 cars.

Yao Yang said that with the exception of Tesla, all the other new car-building forces had to die, but he used words such as "probably" and "afraid". In fact, he did not directly declare death to these new car-building forces. However, in the current severe market environment, the products and processes of the new forces of car building are difficult to meet the standards of traditional car companies, but because of their active thinking, they make up for the deficiency through intelligent technology, appearance and other aspects.

At present, a number of countries have established a time ban on combustion, and China is no exception. Most traditional car companies have also made plans for full electrification. Once the traditional car companies make great efforts in electrification, coupled with the total elimination of new energy subsidies, it will be the key moment to really test the survival of the new power of car-building.

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