AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)01/02 Report--

2019 has passed, and the last month of the year is the opportunity for a "final sprint" for car companies, but the market still seems to have not changed. According to the "inventory early warning Index Survey of China Automobile Dealers in December" released by the China Automobile Circulation Association, the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in December 2019 was 59%, down 3.5% from the previous month and 7.1% from the same period last year. Inventory early warning index is above the warning line.

The China Automobile Circulation Association said that as the last month of the year, dealers will make great efforts to clear inventory, especially with activities such as double Twelve and Christmas to stimulate consumers to buy cars, so as to release some of their consumption potential. However, the overall market performance this year is not satisfactory, consumer performance is still not improved, and even consumers' willingness to buy this year is even lower than in previous years, even if dealers increase concessions in order to close transactions, new car prices continue to decline, profitability has not changed much.

Take the inventory early warning index 50% as the threshold, less than 50% are in a reasonable range, the higher the inventory early warning index, the lower the market demand, the greater the inventory pressure, the greater the operating pressure and risk. As a result, the best performance in December was 55.4% in the west, 60.8% in the south, 58.1% in the north and 57.3% in the east.

It is worth noting that the import and luxury brand index in December was 56.5%, up 1.6% from the previous month, while the mainstream joint venture brand index and independent brand index decreased compared with the previous month. Unexpectedly, the performance of luxury brands was slightly lower than that of joint venture and independent brands in December.

According to the analysis of the association, January 2020 is the traditional Spring Festival in China, so the number of working days is correspondingly reduced. Most consumers go home to visit relatives or travel for holidays, and the sale of new cars will be further reduced. Sales in January 2020 are expected to drop significantly compared with December 2019.

Car sales figures for December have not yet been released. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of cars in China were 2.593 million and 2.457 million respectively, up 13 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively from the previous month. Production increased by 3.8 per cent compared with the same period last year, while sales fell by 3.6 per cent, and the decline was 0.5 per cent lower than last month. Sales have declined for 17 consecutive months compared with the same period last year.

As for the future trend, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that at present, the decline in China's automobile production and sales in the fourth quarter is gradually narrowing, and the market is slowly picking up in the future, but consumer confidence is still insufficient.

Therefore, according to the forecast, the market decline in 2020 will continue into 2021, or flat. Dealers should rationally estimate the actual market demand and reasonably control the inventory level according to the actual situation, so as to prevent excessive inventory pressure and lead to operational risks.

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