AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)02/11 Report--

Under the influence of COVID-19, many automobile enterprises in China have stopped work and production. In order to resume normal business plans as soon as possible, many automobile enterprises choose to resume work on February 10th as the first day of work. However, a special survey on the return to work of dealers conducted by the China Automobile Circulation Association on member units and related enterprises recently found that the proportion of 4S stores was only less than 30%.

The survey shows that of the 1067 4S stores surveyed by the association in more than 30 car dealer groups in more than 10 provinces, autonomous regions and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, only 302 have resumed work or partially resumed work. There are still more than 700 4S stores that have not resumed work or are unable to resume work, and the overall opening rate of 4S stores is 28.3%.

It is understood that this part of 4S stores that have not started or cannot start work are mainly due to two major reasons: approval for resumption of work and material shortage, of which nearly 70% are subject to strict examination and approval requirements of local governments, while 24% of dealers comprehensively consider the shortage of staff safety and epidemic prevention materials, and the remaining 8% are other factors. Obviously, the factor of returning to work is mainly due to the examination and approval of the government.

As a matter of fact, many local governments require enterprises to report, approve and strengthen epidemic prevention and control first, and workers who return to work in other places need to be quarantined, so it will also have a certain impact on time; and enterprises need to be equipped with protective equipment, such as the most basic masks, but scarcity is also a major situation at present.

At the same time, in the enterprises that have already started, they are also faced with the shortage of related materials and the sharp decline in passenger flow.

Although in the face of the current epidemic continues to spread in the environment, many dealers have given a lot of car pick-up policies, including non-brand car owners can also enjoy free in-car disinfection and cleaning and other attractive ways, but in most 4S store showrooms can see very few customers, some showrooms even said that no users entered the store to negotiate. Including Audi, Dongfeng Nissan, Volvo, FAW Toyota, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other brand dealers said that there is no customer decision.

According to the "inventory early warning Index Survey of China Automobile Dealers" released by the China Automobile Circulation Association, the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers reached 62.7% in January 2020, and the inventory early warning index is above the warning line.

However, Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Circulation Association, said that since 2/3 of the questionnaires were collected before the outbreak, the index does not fully reflect the impact of the epidemic on the automobile circulation industry.

Therefore, it is believed that the trading volume in February of this year will definitely plummet, and at the same time, many dealers will probably collapse. According to one industry insider, whenever the market falls to a low ebb, it will be accompanied by industry consolidation and the disappearance of brands; market increments say that sales will only be concentrated in leading companies and brands.

Even without the epidemic, the automobile market as a whole has been declining in recent years. According to data released by the Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce, 53.5% of dealers lost money in 2018; 27.1% of dealers lost money for three years in a row. Obviously, enterprises that cannot survive this difficulty will be closer and closer to disappearing. However, there will also be a new round of opportunities after the epidemic.

With regard to the expectations of China's auto market in 2020, Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Circulation Association, has predicted that China's car sales in 2020 will be 22.5 million, down 10% from the same period last year. Wilson, a market research agency, judged that it was down 3.0% from the same period last year. China Automobile Association expects a decline of 2%, and foreign analysts have a more optimistic forecast of 1% growth of 2%. However, judging from the current situation, the decline of the overall auto market in 2020 will be temporarily unpredictable.

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