AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)02/13 Report--

On February 13, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") officially released the economic operation of automobile industry in January 2020. According to the statistical data of key enterprise groups of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of automobiles were estimated to be 1.783 million and 1.941 million respectively, down 33.5% and 27.0% month-on-month respectively and 24.6% and 18.0% year-on-year respectively.

Specifically speaking, the production and sales of passenger cars in China in January this year are expected to complete 1.444 million and 1.614 million respectively, down 33.9% and 27.1% month-on-month and 27.6% and 20.2% year-on-year respectively, which is greater than that of the overall automobile.

In terms of new energy vehicles, production and sales in January this year are expected to complete 40,000 and 44,000 vehicles respectively, down 55.4% and 54.4% year-on-year respectively.

In fact, the decline in car sales in January was expected. On the one hand, the Spring Festival holiday happens to be in January, and the effective working days of that month are significantly reduced compared with other months. On the other hand, the gradual outbreak of Xinguan pneumonia on January 20 caused different degrees of impact on the upstream and downstream of the automobile industry, but it happened to be in the off-season of the Spring Festival automobile market, and the impact of the epidemic on the automobile market was actually limited. China Automobile Association believes that the impact of Xinguan pneumonia epidemic on China's economy is greater than SARS in 2003, and the impact on the automobile industry is greater, but it will not change the long-term stable growth trend, and the fundamentals of China's economic growth will remain.

In addition, due to the increase of marketing activities by automobile enterprises at the end of last year, the automobile market performance in January was overdrawn ahead of schedule, which also had a certain impact on automobile sales in January.

According to the survey of China Automobile Circulation Association, the inventory warning index of automobile dealers in January 2020 was 62.7%, up 6.3 percentage points month-on-month and 6.5 percentage points year-on-year.

Dealer inventory warning index month-on-month and year-on-year growth in different degrees, the biggest reason is still because January is the traditional car off-season, plus the Spring Festival holiday consumers return home caused by 4S shop passenger flow reduction, in fact, the epidemic situation on January sales volume is not significant.

Due to the epidemic, a number of parts manufacturers and automobile manufacturers announced an extension of the resumption of work time, so the impact of the epidemic on the automobile market will be concentrated in February, parts manufacturers can not supply parts normally will lead to automobile manufacturers unable to produce, and then affect the February output of automobile enterprises.

According to the survey conducted by China Automobile Circulation Association on the resumption of dealer work, among the 3997 4S stores surveyed as of February 12, the comprehensive resumption efficiency was only 8.4%.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the marketing activities of dealers cannot be carried out normally. In addition, consumers are isolated at home. Although dealers resume work for six times, the turnover will not increase significantly in fact, which will greatly affect the sales performance of automobile enterprises in February.

According to Academician Zhong Nanshan's prediction, Xinguan pneumonia will have an inflection point in late February, and the epidemic is expected to end around April. From this point of view, the impact of the epidemic on the auto market will be concentrated in the first quarter.

China Automobile Association said that the epidemic situation for the automobile industry in the first quarter of the operation of the situation is huge, industry production and sales will appear a large decline. After the epidemic is over, the suppressed consumer demand will be released in the short term, and the automobile market will usher in a short wave of consumption peak. The whole year will show a trend of low before and high after, but the development situation of the automobile market throughout the year is still not optimistic.

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