AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)02/27 Report--

China's car market fell to a low ebb in 2020, the biggest decline in history, mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the continued spread of the epidemic and the originally depressed mood of the car market. However, the industry has high expectations for the next car market, believing that the demand for cars has gradually recovered, and even ushered in a period of explosive sales of concentrated car purchases in March. However, according to a statement issued by the China Federation of passengers, the overall car market is expected to decline by more than 36% in March compared with the same period last year, based on the analysis of the epidemic, economy, and willingness to spend. It means that the consumer demand for cars is still in the doldrums, and manufacturers and dealers continue to struggle.

The decline in February has reached a record.

According to a report released by the Federation of passengers on the 26th, the retail trend of China's passenger car market was extremely low in February, with a decline of 89% in the first three cycles compared with the same period last year.

Among them, passenger car retail in the first week of February (1-9) was almost negligible, with an average daily retail sales of only 811 units, down 96% from the same period last year; retail sales in the second week (10-16) reached a daily average of 4100 units, down 89% from the same period last year; retail sales in the third week (17-23) averaged 5411 units per day, down 83% from the same period last year, and the market rebounded slowly. As a result, car sales in the first three cycles of February were only 73876, down 89% from a year earlier, a record decline.

Due to the continuing impact of the epidemic, the delay in the resumption of work by car dealers and the sharp reduction in passenger flow caused by consumers staying behind closed doors, it is expected that there was a serious decline in sales in February, and only particularly urgent car demand bought cars during the epidemic. In mid-February, even if dealers around the country gradually return to work, passenger flow is still the biggest problem.

"the number of daily customers has been reduced by about half compared with that of a year ago, with only 2-3 groups a day in the middle of the week and 6-7 groups on weekends," said the manager of a 4S store in Shanghai. According to the latest survey data of the China Automobile Circulation Association, as of the 27th, the sales efficiency of China's dealers was 20% (the sales efficiency means that the current vehicle sales can reach the level of the same period in previous years), which is still much lower than that of the same period in previous years.

The decline is expected to exceed 36% in March.

After the epidemic, the automobile market ushered in an explosive period, which is the expectation of the industry for the trend of the automobile industry. However, according to the forecast data of the Federation of passengers, combined with the influence of various factors, the wholesale volume of the overall passenger car market in March is expected to be 1.225 million, down 36.4% from March 2019. Car sales will remain sluggish in the first quarter.

The above forecast of the decline in sales is based on a combination of the impact of the epidemic and the seasonal decline. There are mainly the following points, among which the seasonal decline leads to a reduction in sales; under the impact of the sudden pneumonia epidemic, February was in the critical stage of the epidemic, dealers basically closed their stores completely, and residents were extremely cautious in their travel, so sales in February will decline sharply. It is expected that the epidemic situation will be initially controlled in March, but the market is still in a slow recovery period, resulting in sales reduction. While the macroeconomic recovery is still weak, and under the impact of the superimposed epidemic, the short-term income of most consumers may decline, due to short-term economic pressure, price fluctuations, and lack of consumer confidence, resulting in a decline in willingness to spend; in addition, due to the slow recovery of manufacturers' return to work, the relatively conservative production schedule in March is also expected to cause a certain market reduction.

Judging from the above situation, the automobile industry will still be greatly affected by the aftermath of the epidemic in March, and the significant decline in sales will continue. Under this, the industry hopes for a significant increase in car demand in the second quarter.

Will the auto market follow up?

The Ministry of Commerce made it clear that it will thoroughly implement the important decision-making arrangements of the central government on "actively stabilizing traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles," and work with relevant departments to study and introduce policies and measures to further stabilize automobile consumption. reduce the impact of the epidemic on automobile consumption. At the same time, all localities are encouraged to introduce measures to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles, increase the purchase restrictions on traditional vehicles, and trade in old cars for new ones in accordance with local conditions, so as to promote automobile consumption.

In the policy encouragement and the delay in car demand caused by the epidemic, the industry believes that the car market will make efforts in the follow-up, and may even bring back full-year sales to achieve positive growth.

Auto industry analysts at a number of securities companies believe that car sales have dropped significantly during the epidemic, but there will be concentrated car purchases after the end of the epidemic, leading to a positive year-on-year increase in sales in some months. At the same time, the epidemic will stimulate the demand for cars from some car-free families, and consumers will be more inclined to travel by private cars. Car demand will gradually recover, and there may even be the possibility of a concentrated outbreak of demand in the second quarter, which is good for the whole industry chain.

Wang Bin, the relevant head of the Ministry of Commerce, said that at present, the opening of car sales outlets and the recovery of consumers' purchasing behavior are relatively slow, and car sales will be affected to a certain extent in the short term. However, the Chinese automobile market has great development space and potential, and the automobile consumption demand is still exuberant. The impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry is phased. With the control of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of production and life, the compensatory consumption demand of cars will increase significantly in the later stage.

Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC GROUP, believes that the automobile industry will have a certain impact in the short term, but decency is positive, and he hopes that the government will introduce more measures in the areas of finance and taxation, lifting license plate restrictions and encouraging automobile consumption. On the other hand, the China Federation of passengers believes that the recovery rate of car sales depends on the measures of various local governments. If the policy is strongly implemented and the comprehensive support policy for traditional cars is targeted, at least sales will grow from April to December after the epidemic is stable, and even bring back the positive growth of sales for the whole year.

Generally speaking, the automobile market is not optimistic in the first quarter from January to March, and the aftermath of the epidemic has a great impact. The automobile industry is still counting on the policy support of the national government, so as to really stimulate the growth of automobile consumption.

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