AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)02/29 Report--

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, even if the automobile industry enters the stage of resuming work and putting into production, the problem of shortage of spare parts can not be solved, and the major automobile companies have to reduce the operating rate or reduce production. A dealer document from brilliance BMW shows that customer orders with some quotas in March and April will be deleted or cancelled and production plans will no longer be scheduled. In addition, a number of BMW dealers have announced that the affected models will reduce terminal discounts from now on.

According to documents, affected by the epidemic, brilliance BMW Shenyang plant's original January and February quota orders were postponed to March and April production, resulting in the original March and April quota orders can not be produced on time, so the affected March and April quota orders need to cancel production plans from the system.

The affected customer orders include the cancellation of production in March except for the quota orders that have already entered the production workshop, and the cancellation of production in April according to a certain proportion.

The affected models include F52 (domestic 1-series hatchback version), G28 (domestic 3-series long axle version), G38 (domestic 5-series long axle version) and G08 (domestic X3).

The core reason for this move is the impact of the epidemic and the lack of spare parts of short-term supporting manufacturers, leading to the disruption of factory production, which will have a direct impact on the pick-up time of customers.

In addition, notices issued by internal personnel of several dealers show that the prices of some models affected by this will be raised, terminal discounts will be reduced, and new quotations will be implemented from now on.

In 2019, BMW (including MINI) delivered 723700 vehicles in the Chinese market, an increase of 13.1% over the same period last year, surpassing Mercedes-Benz Audi in sales and winning the top spot in sales of luxury brands in China in 2019. Brilliance BMW contributed about 3/4 of its sales. Brilliance BMW has also suffered production restrictions after it has been delayed to resume work, which will have a direct impact on BMW's sales in the current quarter.

In fact, with the exception of brilliance BMW, most automobile companies are affected by the epidemic and the shortage of spare parts. even if they enter the resumption stage, their production capacity is still limited by the supply of upstream suppliers. According to the data of Hubei Automobile Industry Association, at present, there are more than 1300 auto parts enterprises in Hubei Province, accounting for about 1/10 of the country. Hubei's external auto parts supply covers the whole country. Hubei Province stipulates that the time for enterprises to return to work is not earlier than 24:00 on March 10, so at present, the automobile and parts industry in Hubei is at a standstill. Even if the parts manufacturers in other places resume normal production, there will be a shortage of parts from Hubei and other places, which will make it difficult for the main engine factory to carry out follow-up production.

As a result, Toyota's joint venture plant in Tianjin resumed work on February 18, but resumed production on the basis of lower operating rates. Some SAIC GM plants have resumed work since February 17, but capacity is limited by the supply of upstream suppliers.

Limited production capacity and insufficient supply, the accumulation of terminal purchase orders may also lead to a short-term rise in the terminal prices of some brands, especially in the pursuit of low inventory coefficient, or price fluctuations of some hot-selling models. For example, brilliance BMW, in the case that manufacturers are unable to arrange follow-up model production, a number of dealers have immediately announced a reduction in terminal discounts and a price correction.

In addition, the aftermath of the epidemic has a great impact on the automobile industry. In the short term, consumers' enthusiasm for buying cars is reduced, macroeconomic recovery is still weak, and the production of car enterprises is blocked. It has dealt a serious blow to the car market, which was originally in a continuous decline.

According to data from the Federation of passengers, sales in the domestic passenger car market fell by 20.4% in January from a year earlier, and retail sales in the first three cycles of February showed an 89% year-on-year "cliff decline", and the market still recovered slowly. At the same time, the federation also expects depressed car consumption sentiment to continue in March, with sales expected to fall by more than 36% in March.

Some analysts believe that car sales have dropped significantly during the epidemic, but after the end of the epidemic, there will be concentrated car purchases, driving sales in some months to achieve positive year-on-year growth. At the same time, the epidemic will stimulate the car purchase demand of some car-free families, and consumers will be more inclined to travel private cars, so the car demand will gradually recover, and there may even be the possibility of a concentrated outbreak of demand in the second quarter, which is good for the whole industry chain. However, some analysts say that China's auto market is still not optimistic, and the follow-up recovery is uncertain.

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