AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)03/04 Report--

Affected by the epidemic, the decline in production and sales in China's automobile market in February has become a doomed outcome, but it is still a bit surprising for the extent of the decline in February. According to the data released by the Federation of passengers, the retail growth rate of the national passenger car market in February was estimated to be 20% of that of last year, down 80% from the same period last year. The 80% decline in February is expected to be the biggest decline in the car market in 2020. In addition, the cumulative year-on-year decline from January to February is expected to reach 41%, the largest decline in the Chinese market in nearly 20 years, which is also a comprehensive reflection of sales affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic.

Specifically, the retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of February (1-9) were almost frozen, with a daily average of only 811 units, down 96% from the same period last year, and overall sales in the first week were on the low side; retail sales in the second week of February (10-16) reached an average daily average of 4100 units, down 89% from a year earlier, and the retail market rebounded slowly Retail sales reached an average daily average of 5411 units in the third week of February (17-23), down 83% from the same period last year, and the market did not pick up too quickly. Retail sales reached an average daily average of 16000 vehicles in the fourth week of February (24-29), a year-on-year growth rate of 63%, mainly affected by the upload of accumulated orders at the end of the month.

Affected by the epidemic, China's car dealers, car manufacturers and parts manufacturers have postponed the resumption of work and production. At present, except for some manufacturers in Hubei Province, most enterprises have resumed production in mid-February, but due to the long automobile industry chain, it still takes some time to fully resume production. At the same time, the follow-up speed of production logistics is slow, and the pace of resuming production may not be too fast. At the same time, although the marketing system has already started, some offline marketing activities are difficult to carry out, and the promotion of many new products also lags behind.

The epidemic has reduced consumers' desire to buy cars, and a decline in car manufacturers' sales in February has become a foregone conclusion.

In March, the resurrection rate of dealers is still not ideal. According to data released by the China Automobile Circulation Association, as of 16:00 on March 4, among the 8155 4S stores across the country, the resumption rate was 75.1 percent, the sales efficiency was 25.3 percent, the after-sales efficiency was 30.5 percent, and the comprehensive efficiency was only 37.34 percent.

In order to alleviate the pressure on dealers, most car companies give up the sales assessment of dealers and directly issue staff subsidies to dealers, suspend the assessment of new 4S stores, strengthen online marketing investment and other business policies. However, for whether to cancel the dealer assessment in March, many car companies are still in a conservative state. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation of passengers, said that the control of the epidemic is slower than expected, but month-on-month sales will gradually pick up in March, and the dealer assessment in March will be adjusted appropriately but will not be cancelled.

In addition, due to the new pneumonia epidemic, the Geneva Motor Show originally scheduled for March 3 has been cancelled, and the Beijing Motor Show has also been postponed. The cancellation of the Geneva auto show shows that the current situation in the overseas market is also not optimistic, and although China has postponed the Beijing auto show, by that time the epidemic has been basically brought under control, and the new car marketing activities of auto companies have been carried out. The cancellation of the Geneva auto show also highlights the importance of the Beijing auto show, which also has a certain boost to China's auto sales.

The impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry is continuous, in view of the severity of the current automobile market, various localities have also launched corresponding policies to rescue the market. The Guangzhou municipal government issued a new energy car purchase policy on March 3. From March to the end of December 2020, consumers will give a comprehensive subsidy of 10, 000 yuan per car for the purchase of new energy vehicles. Consumers who replace or scrap used cars will receive a subsidy of 3000 yuan for new cars of the "National 6" standard. Prior to this, Foshan and Guangdong provincial governments have issued relevant policies to promote car consumption, these new measures can be implemented in March, then March car sales will be a good boost to car consumption.

It is worth noting that although car sales hit rock bottom in February, there are signs of recovery in terms of weekly sales, and sales in March are expected to be higher than in February. However, there is also a view that the epidemic will not be basically brought under control until April, so car consumption in March is still relatively serious.

The plan of resuming work and production of automobile enterprises is in progress, but in any case, only the upper, middle and lower reaches of the automobile industry support each other and the whole country work together to fight the epidemic, can China's automobile industry usher in real growth.

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