AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)03/09 Report--

The car market fell more than expected at the start of 2020, and the sudden COVID-19 epidemic brought the auto industry to a complete trough. for the subsequent recovery of the car market, the industry is not expected to return to normal until May, while full-year sales fell 8 per cent.

Without strong stimulus policies at the national level, retail sales in the car market are expected to be 19 million in 2020, down 8 per cent from a year earlier and larger than the previous forecast of-5 per cent, said Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Federation of passengers.

However, for the 8% decline for the whole year, many consumers and industry people still think that it is "too optimistic."

Cui Dongshu also said that due to the long chain of the automobile industry, the conditions for fully resuming production are relatively difficult, and the pace of production in February is much lower than that of resuming work. According to the normal judgment of relieving the epidemic at the end of April, the downturn in the car market in February is more than expected. The recovery rate of the car market from March to April is relatively slow, and it is expected to return to normal after May. As a result, the auto industry will remain in the doldrums.

Due to the double blow of the downturn of the car market and the epidemic situation, China's car sales have experienced the biggest decline in nearly 20 years.

According to the latest data report released by the Federation of passengers, passenger car sales in the domestic car market fell 20.4% in January from a year earlier, and are expected to decline by 80% in February. As a result, car sales fell 41% from January to February compared with the same period last year, the biggest decline in car sales in nearly 20 years.

As a result of the epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday was extended, all production and sales activities were suspended, consumers stayed behind closed doors, car companies resumed work several times, 4S stores were also closed for a long time, and a sharp drop in sales in February was expected. Behind this data, the anxiety of the auto industry has been further increased.

SAIC, the country's largest auto company, produced 32260 vehicles in February, down 90 per cent from a year earlier, while sales fell 87 per cent to 47365. SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM Wuling all fell by about 90%, mainly due to the epidemic.

In view of the decline in sales performance, SAIC began to launch a "pay cut" program for senior executives in mid-February, reducing a certain percentage of employees' performance pay. SAIC said, "under special circumstances, it is very normal for the part of employee income linked to performance to fluctuate." In February, the production and sales volume of many car companies dropped too much. Enterprises adjust performance pay according to the situation, which is also in full compliance with national laws and regulations, and the salary system is also in line with the market competition system. "

SAIC as a whole, cumulative production from January to February was 450000, down 52.5 per cent from a year earlier, while sales were 447600, down 54 per cent from a year earlier.

Almost all other car companies have also recorded historic declines, and it is imperative to adjust their full-year targets.

Toyota sold 23800 new cars in China in February, down 70.2 per cent from a year earlier. Honda China said on the 6th that due to the COVID-19 epidemic, Honda's terminal sales in China fell 85.1 per cent year-on-year to 11288 vehicles in February 2020. What worries Honda even more is that Dongfeng Honda's three vehicle factories in Wuhan have not yet resumed work.

Mazda also reported sales of 2430 vehicles in China in February, down 79 per cent from a year earlier. According to figures released by Hyundai Kia, wholesale sales in china by the two companies fell by about 95 per cent in February from a year earlier, to 2000 and 1000 respectively.

Independent car brand BYD also released figures for February. Its February sales fell 79 per cent to 5501, with new energy vehicles falling 77 per cent to 2803 and BYD's cumulative sales from January to February to 30674, down 56.6 per cent from a year earlier. Geely's total car sales in February were 21168, down about 75 per cent from the same period last year, with a cumulative sales of 133006 in the first two months, down 45 per cent from a year earlier.

For car consumption after the epidemic, the "2020 Automobile purchase restriction Urban consumption propensity Survey questionnaire" jointly launched by the financial media and Tencent Automobile shows that if the purchase restriction policy is lifted or the car license plate can be obtained by increasing the number of license plates, 72.9% of consumers said they would choose to buy new cars. Among them, 50.80% of consumers buy for travel convenience, 14.1% for safety and health, and 31.0% are rigid demand users who buy cars for the first time.

Therefore, from the survey results, if the purchase restrictions are further relaxed, there will be an increase in car consumption.

In mid-February, the Ministry of Commerce clearly pointed out that it would study and introduce policies and measures to further stabilize automobile consumption to reduce the impact of the epidemic on automobile consumption, and at the same time encourage all localities to introduce measures to promote new energy vehicle consumption, increase traditional car purchase restrictions, and carry out car trade-in measures to promote automobile consumption. Subsequently, the local government of Guangdong has introduced relevant measures to further stimulate car consumption.

"stabilizing traditional bulk consumption such as cars" has become an important decision-making arrangement of the government after the epidemic, but the uncertainty of the future market has increased the worries of the Autobots.

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