AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)04/13 Report--

COVID-19 has undoubtedly had a great impact on the global market. He thought that in the face of the impact of the epidemic since February, China's auto market had declined by 80 per cent, which was already the biggest decline in the global auto market. However, as the epidemic has gradually spread to overseas regions, it has dealt a heavy blow to many overseas countries, with the Italian auto market falling as much as 85 per cent.

According to the latest statistics of the automobile market in many countries around the world in March and the first quarter, in addition to the nearly 50% decline in the Chinese market, the Indian market in the Asian region also showed a year-on-year decline of more than 50% in March this year; the Japanese and Korean markets were relatively flat in March; only the overall car market in Russia was growing against the trend. Second, as the European region is at the center of the current epidemic, markets affected by the epidemic, such as Italy and Spain, have shown the largest decline; North America is relatively spreading and the impact is relatively slow.

However, from the first quarter of this year, the Chinese market is still not the region with the biggest decline, down 42.4% from the same period last year, but this is mainly due to the fact that China is the "site" of the COVID-19 epidemic, so the impact of the epidemic should also be the first to be affected, and as the domestic market is gradually under control, the market gradually warms up. While the impact of the epidemic in overseas areas continues, it is inevitable that the decline in the market will continue to expand in the subsequent period of time.

The decline in Asia varies from one to another.

From the perspective of specific performance, China in Asia is the earliest to be affected by the epidemic, so the country has introduced corresponding anti-epidemic control, which restricts domestic production and consumption. Although the market recovered somewhat in March, the hidden dangers caused by the epidemic continued, and even with more policy support, the market recovery is not ideal. According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association, car sales in China in March were 1.43 million, down 43.3% from the same period last year, while cumulative sales in the first quarter of this year were 3.672 million, down 42.4% from the same period last year.

Of course, as the domestic situation is gradually under control, the market recovery is inevitable, but the recovery time is relatively slow, which is also one of the performance of the Chinese market due to most overseas markets.

Japan and South Korea, as the earliest overseas regions, also experienced a marked decline due to supply chain disruptions and declining car demand, which rebounded slightly according to their decline of 10.3% and 21.7% respectively in February, thanks to the country's effectiveness in epidemic prevention and control. It is worth noting that the continuing shortage of overseas supply has led Japan to announce that all seven major domestic brands have stopped production, meaning that the market performance may remain pessimistic in the future. According to foreign media reports, the global production of seven Japanese automakers is now expected to be 50% lower than in 2019.

Among them, according to the performance of Hyundai Motor, South Korea's largest automobile group, the local market still maintains its advantage and is less affected by the epidemic, with a total of 72100 new cars sold in March, up 3 per cent from the same period last year. Hyundai, by contrast, sold only 236300 cars in overseas markets, down 26.2 per cent from a year earlier.

The Indian market, one of the world's largest automobile countries, performed relatively poorly in March, with sales returning to the level of a decade ago. Wholesale passenger car sales in March fell 51.3% year-on-year to 140752 vehicles, but this does not include luxury brands, even including. India's luxury market is also very few.

However, according to India's latest controls, the country has only imposed a three-week national blockade since March 25, so another reason for the sharp decline in sales is local policy, and the closer it gets to the end of the month, the more likely the discount is. Many consumers are on the sidelines, but at the same time, the impact of the epidemic has delayed market performance again.

Europe is affected by pandemics

Compared with the decline of the rest of the world, Europe has undoubtedly become the region with the greatest impact since March, with many countries setting the "worst" record in nearly a decade. Among them, Spain and Italy, as the first countries with the spread of the epidemic, imposed nationwide blockades on this by the government, and sales declined seriously.

At the same time, FCA and Renault, Italy's largest automobile group, also had to stop work due to several employee infections. Among them, PSA Peugeot Citroen announced on March 16 that it would close all its 15 factories in Europe from now on. Renault also said on March 17 that at least 12 French factories and 18000 employees would be suspended because of the French government's decision to stop production in accordance with the French government's epidemic prevention requirements. Obviously, a large-scale shutdown will bring huge losses to both car companies.

According to data provided by national automobile industry associations, Germany saw a 38 per cent decline in sales in March, which is already the best performing country in major European and American markets, followed by the UK by 44 per cent and other countries by about 70 per cent. Of these, Spain fell by 69% and France by 72%, while car sales in Italy, the hardest hit, plummeted 85% in March compared with the same period last year.

According to the Italian Association of International Automobile Manufacturers, even if things start to improve between the end of April and early May, the Italian car market still faces a 32% decline this year.

Earlier, the heads of Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW, Germany's three major carmakers, were held a conference call by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss how to "restart" the auto industry. However, the current spread of the epidemic is still difficult to predict how long it will take for the European region to implement the plan to resume production, and because the recovery of the automobile industry chain requires the coordination and synchronization of various countries.

The influence of America is slow, but it is still hard to escape.

As for the outbreak in the Americas, which only began in late March, there is no sign of improvement for the time being, so there may be a bigger decline in April. Because only half a month has led to a number of car companies in the United States, sales have fallen below expectations, sales have fallen to the lowest level in 10 years, and there may be an even bigger decline in April, and some institutions predict that they may even exceed the current performance of most European regions.

Although neither GM nor FCA, one of the big three US carmakers, provided specific sales in March, showing only a 7.1 per cent and 10.4 per cent decline in the first quarter, demand clearly fell sharply in mid-March. According to Volkswagen, Honda, Hyundai and Mazda and other car brands, sales fell by more than 40% in March, which has highlighted the entire U. S. market.

Compared with the US market, Canadian new car sales (projections) fell 47.1 per cent year-on-year to 96117 in March, according to research firm desrosiers. Among them, the passenger car market fell by 60.7% to 19053 vehicles. In Brazil, sales of cars and light commercial vehicles were 155800 in March, down 19.11% from a month earlier and 21.91% from a year earlier. As the epidemic spreads to the Americas, the new car market will be affected at the same time.

According to Scotiabank's analysis of the trend of Canadian car sales, although the current Canadian society is still at a good level, consumption is still weak, coupled with the epidemic leading to further market fluctuations, at least temporarily affect car sales.

Regardless of the impact that countries around the world will face, the current global market performance is still in a non-optimistic trend, although the car market that has recovered in China also does not show a higher-than-expected trend, under the influence of various uncertainties, consumers may face all kinds of possibilities or will happen by retaining sufficient funds. Therefore, it is impossible for the global car market to recover in the short term, and even if there are signs of recovery, it will need to wait for the economy of various countries to gradually stabilize before ensuring the promotion of the car market.

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