AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)05/02 Report--

Although the global region is still in the environment of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, China has benefited from the effective control of the epidemic, so that the automobile market is gradually showing signs of warming up. However, with the exception of China, the car market has plummeted in many parts of the world, with some countries plummeting to 98% in April.

Although no specific data have been released on the specific performance of the European region in April, the rapid spread of the epidemic has led to the adoption of "restraining orders" in many countries, leaving people in many countries to stay at home, resulting in a significant drop in consumption. At the same time, the shutdown has made countries the norm since March.

As a result, after a number of European countries have halved sales since March, data in countries such as France and Italy, which were the first to publish sales data in April, have fallen by 89 per cent and 98 per cent, respectively. Sales in the two countries fell to 72 per cent and 85 per cent respectively in March, apparently further widened by a continued decline in consumption and production.

French Prime Minister Philippe said a few days ago that France will face its worst recession since 1945. Philip said at a news conference on the same day that the French economy is expected to decline by 8% this year, which means that national wealth will shrink. "this is unprecedented and will have a significant impact." He also noted that during the ban, industry and construction fell by 43 per cent and 88 per cent respectively, while catering and hotels came to an almost complete standstill.

Since March this year, since Italy is the region most affected by the epidemic, as the first country to enter the "ban", as the showrooms of several car retailers begin to close, most buyers who have booked cars cannot pick up their cars on time. However, as Italy also gets some control over the epidemic, the blockade is about to be gradually relaxed. From May 4, car dealers can open for business, but dealers in Britain, France and Spain are still unable to receive consumers.

On the contrary, a number of car companies said that they can no longer persist in the losses caused by the continuous suspension of production, and to this end, the three major car manufacturers in Germany are ready to resume production in the near future. According to the plan, the three major automakers, Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler, have gradually resumed production plans across Germany since the end of April. But the German Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that even if the current resumption of work and production, German car production to fully recover could take weeks or even months.

In response, Ernst & Young forecasts that European car sales will shrink by 70 per cent in April and that European car sales fell 55 per cent in March, according to data. The income of ordinary European residents is affected by the epidemic, so it will gradually reduce residents' desire for consumption, among which big consumer products such as cars will inevitably be affected.

In addition to the European market, the same is true in the Americas, where new car sales in the US are expected to be the worst on record in April, with only 633260 new cars expected to be sold in April, down 52.5 per cent from a year earlier and 36.6 per cent from a month earlier, according to analysts at Edmunds, a US professional car website. The second worst month for sales in the past 30 years was January 2009, when it was 655000.

Among them, Toyota and Honda are expected to decline 54% in the United States in April, Mazda and Subaru are down 44.5% and 46.6% respectively, while Hyundai and Kia are down 39% and 38.3% respectively. Although both Ford and general motors have said they will no longer report monthly sales records, Toyota, as the best-performing brand in the United states, will also see a decline of more than 50% in cars of local brands.

As for the performance of future trends in Europe and the United States, some institutions have made different views. HIS expects sales in western and central Europe to fall 13.6 per cent to 15.6 million in 2020, 4.2 per cent in 2021, 4.3 per cent in 2022 and 1.4 per cent in 2023. It means that the auto industry will have a V-shaped recovery in the second half of this year, and once car sales hit bottom, there will be a rebound, but it will be affected to some extent for the whole year.

However, some consultants believe that a V-shaped recovery will not happen. For example, Inovev, a French consulting firm, believes that in the market after the impact of the epidemic, people will not regard changing cars as a top priority. after all, in the market environment after the national shutdown, people are more concerned about the recovery of the economy and when they can return to work and start a normal life.

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