AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)07/19 Report--

In 2020, under the continued influence of the epidemic and the downturn in consumption, sales fell by 42.4% in the first quarter, while automobile consumption picked up and even appeared the phenomenon of "retaliatory consumption" in the second quarter, with sales increasing for three consecutive months compared with the same period last year, helping to reduce the decline in sales in the first half to 16.9%, which has been further narrowed. The China Automobile Association said that under optimistic circumstances, annual sales are expected to be-10%, while pessimistic annual car sales will be at-20%.

Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said, "the epidemic has had a real impact on automobile consumption, especially on some consumers at the bottom, so the pace of growth in the third and fourth quarters should slow down. In a relatively optimistic situation, sales for the whole year are expected to decline by 10% compared with the same period last year." He also said that in a more pessimistic situation, car sales for the whole year would be-20%.

At present, the automobile market is still in a slow recovery, while the passenger car market is weak, the truck market is strong, and new energy vehicles continue to decline.

According to the latest production and sales data of the China Automobile Association, China's car sales reached 2.3 million in June, an increase of 4.8% from the previous month and 11.6% from the same period last year. In the first half of the year, total car sales in China were 10.257 million, down 16.9% from the same period last year.

Passenger cars have dropped a lot. In the first half of the year, the cumulative sales of passenger cars reached 7.873 million, down 22.4% from the same period last year. From the breakdown of model data: car sales fell by 26% in the first half of the year, SUV fell by 14.9%, and MPV sales fell by 45.7%.

Commercial vehicles increased significantly, with cumulative sales of 2.384 million commercial vehicles in the first half of the year, an increase of 8.6 per cent over the same period last year. Industry insiders said that the demand growth of road transport driven by e-commerce logistics, the rigid demand for replacement of No. 3 diesel vehicles and local debt stimulus projects and infrastructure projects were the main reasons for the retaliatory growth of trucks in the first half of the year.

The performance of the new energy vehicle market has been disappointing, with sales falling for 12 months. Sales of new energy vehicles in China in June were 104000, down 33.1% from the same period last year, while the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year reached 393000, down 37.4% from the same period last year.

On the other hand, in the deep adjustment of the automobile market structure, automobile consumption is showing a high-end trend. According to the data, retail sales of luxury car terminals rose 27% in June from a year earlier, up 9% from a month earlier, and market share hit an all-time high of 14.9%. The HKIFA pointed out that the increasing differentiation of car enterprises is mainly due to the high-end consumption of new cars, the gradual upgrading of the purchasing power of consumers, especially the gradual increase in the proportion of the purchase group, and the tendency that the average price of consumption is rising year by year. At the same time, with the intensification of competition under the downward pressure of the car market, the price downward trend of high-end brand models is further highlighted.

Chinese car sales fell 2.76 per cent in 2018, the first annual decline since 1990, and fell 8.2 per cent in 2019 as a result of the downturn in car consumption. According to the CAA's optimistic forecast, the decline will widen to 10% Mur20% in 2020, which means that car sales will also fall by a new high.

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