AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)08/06 Report--

Judging from the performance of the domestic car market in the past, the sluggish sales from June to August are all caused by the off-season of the traditional automobile industry. However, due to the impact of this year's epidemic, consumer demand has been delayed for the whole year, resulting in year-on-year growth in domestic car market sales from April to July. However, judging from the specific sales performance, there has been obvious demand pressure in the market in July, down 6% from the previous month.

According to the latest passenger car sales data released by the Federation of passenger cars, in July 2020, retail sales of passenger car manufacturers are expected to grow 6% year on year, down 6% from the previous month; wholesale sales of passenger car manufacturers are expected to grow 4% year on year, down 8% from the previous month. The opening trend of July is not strong, but with the trend of gradual recovery of the market in the later period, sales for the whole month return to year-on-year growth, indicating that the market performance in July this year has reversed the trend in the traditional off-season.

The association believes that due to the great changes in the consumption environment in early July, due to the rainy season of the college entrance examination season, the trend of the car market is not strong. In mid-July, with the end of the college entrance examination and the obvious trend of overseas travel becoming a domestic self-driving tour, some demand for cars was released. And with the alleviation of the epidemic in Beijing, consumer confidence is stable, the external environment of the car market continues to improve, and automobile consumer confidence is gradually improving. And the just-experienced Chengdu auto show helped boost sales in the auto market at the end of July.

According to the specific performance, in the first week of July, the daily average wholesale sales were 29000 vehicles, an increase of 11% over the same period last year; in the second week, the daily average wholesale sales were 37000 vehicles, an increase of 14%; in the third week, the daily average wholesale sales were 40000 vehicles, an increase of 4% over the same period last year; in the fourth week, wholesale sales averaged 44000 vehicles per day, up 7% from the same period last year. In the fifth week, wholesale sales averaged 89000 vehicles a day, down 5 per cent from a year earlier.

The market fell again in the fifth week because some manufacturers began to take high-temperature holidays this week. Since it has entered a high-temperature holiday cycle in late July last year, and the holiday began in early August this year, the production and sales of the auto market for the whole month of this year is relatively strong, which means that the market may not be optimistic in August. After all, the car market has entered the traditional off-season, and sales are also showing a downward trend compared with the previous month.

In addition, according to the latest inventory data released by the China Automobile Circulation Association in July, the dealer inventory early warning index reached 62.7% in July, up 5.9 percentage points from the previous month and 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory early warning index is above the rise and fall line, which is the second highest in the year after the inventory index in February and in line with the inventory index in January.

The association said that in order to fill the gap of the epidemic, the annual task target has not been reduced, the purchase and sales prices of dealers have been upside down, the sales pressure has increased and profits have decreased, and the uneven purchase and sales have led to a continuous rise in inventory pressure. coupled with the overdraft car market for all kinds of activities in the second quarter, it is expected that the original market law will be restored in the third quarter, and the car market will decline seasonally in August, and sales may decline.

However, at the just-concluded Chengdu auto show, many new cars went on sale at the wrong peak, hoping to achieve a sprint for the traditional sales season. According to the data, the number of new cars on the market is expected to reach 55 in August, of which 18 are brand-new models. Among them, there are 15 new energy models and 24 SUV models, all of which are the main driving models in the major production layout markets, and there is no lack of important models such as the new Honda Feido, the new Harvard H6 and the Red Flag H9 on the market.

With regard to the forecast of the market in August, Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Circulation Association, said that in August, as the traditional off-season of the automobile market, due to hot weather and rainy season in some areas, the number of passengers gathered will be reduced. Potential demanders may take a wait-and-see attitude and delay their purchases in August.

The Association believes that with the economic recovery and the overall stability of residents' employment and income expectations, consumer confidence and willingness to spend have also increased. The sales volume of China's automobile market in August will be higher than that in July.

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