AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)08/20 Report--

Due to the decline of the global auto market, this year experienced a decline in the market in the second year after the decline in 2019, and in this environment, coupled with the impact of novel coronavirus, the car market has become even worse this year. However, due to the effectiveness of domestic epidemic prevention and control, the car market has rebounded strongly since March, maintaining a growth trend even into the off-season, and is expected to grow by 8% in August compared with the same period last year.

According to data previously released by the China Automobile Circulation Association, the domestic automobile market has achieved a significant release after a period of consumption restraint, with the dealer inventory warning index rising again to 62.7% in July, up 5.9 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In response, the Circulation Association predicts that the car market will show a seasonal decline in August, and sales may decline.

After July, the rainy season in the south, floods in many places, repeated epidemic situations in Xinjiang, Liaoning and other places, coupled with the pressure of car companies on dealers, have directly led to increased inventory pressure on dealers. As a result, dealers' judgment on August market demand and their own operating conditions is generally slightly pessimistic.

However, the Federation said that the gradual improvement in the macro-economy has further supported the pick-up in demand for cars. Although the effect of stimulus policies has weakened in some areas, existing policies will continue to stimulate car consumption. Driven by multiple factors, the retail market is expected to pick up steadily this month, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to maintain the level of last month.

According to the association's test results for manufacturers in the first half of August, the market discount performance in August remained the same as that of the previous month, reflecting that manufacturers still maintain obvious sales promotion efforts to achieve impact full-year sales targets, and passenger traffic also increased by 2% in August. At the same time, according to the manufacturer's target, the narrow passenger car retail market in August was about 1.69 million vehicles, an increase of about 8 per cent year-on-year.

According to the average daily retail sales of the major manufacturers in the first two weeks, it has achieved an increase of 2% and 7% respectively over the same period last year, showing a strong opening trend, and the sales trend in the third week is expected to advance steadily, with an average daily average of about 6% compared with the same period last year. In the fourth week, because it is one working day more than the previous year, it is estimated that the controversial retail sales will reach 1.69 million vehicles.

Originally, since this year's high-temperature holiday was concentrated in early August, while last year in July, the China Automobile Association predicted that the market would decline as a result, but the CAA said that in August this year, the production department took a centralized holiday while meeting inventory demand, and most of the marketing departments did not rest and clung to the end market, so production and sales growth was relatively stable.

At the same time, as the national economy continues to recover steadily, the operation and profit situation of some enterprises have improved, which will continue to stimulate automobile consumption. However, it will take some time to transmit to the substantial improvement of residents' income, and whether the consumption of the car market during the year is sustainable or not needs further observation.

In the first half of this year, with the epidemic gradually under control in the domestic market, and under the combined effect of industrial stimulus policies and manufacturers' promotions, consumer demand was compensated in the second quarter, and the passenger car market has also shown a "V" reversal, helping the market narrow from 41% in the first quarter to 3% in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, under the environment of stable recovery of the economy, it will promote the slow repair of purchasing power and consumer confidence.

According to the latest production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association, from January to July this year, automobile production and sales completed 12.314 million and 12.365 million respectively, down 11.8% and 12.7% respectively from the same period last year, and the decline was 5 and 4.2 percentage points lower than that in January-June.

Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that at the end of last year, he predicted that car sales this year would be the same as in 2019, but the impact of the epidemic delayed car sales for two or three months. "it's hard to make up for this. But it is entirely possible that the decline has narrowed to single digits. Now, the overall decline is 12.7% compared with the same period last year. We still have five months to go. I think it should be better. "

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