AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)03/01 Report--

After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a number of multinational automakers have stopped exporting vehicles to Russia.

GM will suspend car exports to Russia after the United States imposed sanctions on the country, according to overseas media "CARSCOOPS". "our thoughts are with the Ukrainian people at this time, the loss of life is a tragedy, and we are most concerned about the safety of the people in the region," a GM spokesman said in a statement. At the same time, GM said its supply chain risk was limited and was working to mitigate any potential risks to its business and employees. It is understood that GM's new cars exported to Russia mainly come from factories in North America and South Korea.

In addition to General Motors, Volvo also announced a moratorium on exports to Russia. Volvo said on Monday that it would stop exporting vehicles to the Russian market until further notice. The move makes Volvo the first international carmaker to stop selling cars in the country after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It is understood that Volvo carmakers export cars to Russia from factories in Sweden, China and the United States, and sold about 9000 cars in Russia in 2021.

In addition, auto industry concerns also reported yesterday that two Volkswagen plants in Germany had suspended the ID due to the supply of parts made in Ukraine. The production of series electric cars. Renault also suspended production lines in Russia this week. According to Reuters, a Russian car dealer said that Audi, Volkswagen, Skoda, Porsche and Jaguar Land Rover have also suspended the delivery of new cars to the Russian market. Volkswagen spokesman told Reuters that vehicle delivery will resume as soon as the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States are terminated.

According to the data, a total of 26.25 million cars were sold in the Chinese market in 2021, an increase of 4.4% over the same period last year, the first increase since the decline in 2018, while markets such as Japan, Germany and South Korea all showed declines to varying degrees. Russia, the world's largest country, also grew for the first time since 2018, with sales of 1.667 million vehicles in 2021, ranking 11th in the global market.

The automobile industry as a global industry, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably be affected by the war, while China, as the largest automobile market in the world, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will also have a certain impact on China's automobile and the domestic auto market.

The first is the rise in oil prices. It is understood that Russia is the second largest oil exporter in the world, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in global oil prices. Brent crude oil broke through US $100 again on February 28th, rising 1.67% a day. China, as the world's largest oil import, reached 513 million tons in 2021 and is highly dependent, while the price of domestic oil products has risen with the rise in international crude oil prices. According to the price adjustment rules of domestic oil products, a new round of retail price adjustment window of oil products will open again at 24:00 on March 3. According to the trend of international oil prices, the oil price is expected to rise by 135 yuan per ton, exceeding the red line, equivalent to 0.10 yuan / liter-0.12 yuan / liter, and the oil price is on the rise. This oil price increase will be the fourth rise in 2022.

In addition, although Russia and Ukraine do not have a high share of the automobile market, many automakers have layout of auto parts and key products, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will also affect automobile production. Chinese brands sold 115700 vehicles in Russia in 2021, accounting for 7 per cent of the Russian market, according to data. Specific brands, the Chinese car companies with large sales in Russia and Ukraine are mainly Great Wall, Geely and Chery. Data show that in 2021, Great Wall and Chery in Russia were 39126 and 37118 respectively, up 125 per cent and 224 per cent year-on-year, while Geely sold 24587 vehicles, up 59 per cent from a year earlier.

The Great Wall Russian Tula plant will be put into production in 2019 with an investment of US $500m and a planned annual production capacity of 150000 vehicles. What will be the impact on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? The Great Wall Automobile Securities Department recently said that the production and sales of Great Wall Motor's Russian plant will not be affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and Great Wall's export business to Ukraine may be affected in the short term, but there will be no problem in the long run.

In addition, according to the Taiwan media Economic Daily, after the sudden outbreak between Russia and Ukraine, countries led by the United States began to control exports to Russia, and Taiwan SMC, Intel, AMD and other countries have all responded. The industry expects that the suspension of exports to Russia by large manufacturers, including restrictions on Russian buyers to purchase US-branded core processors (CPU) through the mainland market, will be synchronously restricted.

Previously, the market thought that chip supply could return to normal in the second half of this year, but affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the chip shortage may intensify, and the impact on the domestic automobile industry can not be ignored. At present, the negotiations between the two sides are still ongoing, and there are still many uncertainties about the impact on the global economy and the automobile industry. Therefore, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on China's automobile industry needs to be observed.

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