AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)04/25 Report--

According to the data of the Passenger Association, the retail sales of major domestic manufacturers fell by 32% and 39% respectively in the first and second weeks on a year-on-year basis. Affected by production stagnation and terminal store closure, the narrow passenger car market declined greatly. It is expected that the market will recover in the third week under the promotion of resumption of production, with a year-on-year decline of 35%, and the year-on-year decline in the fourth week will be further narrowed to 26%. It is comprehensively estimated that retail sales in April will reach 1.1 million vehicles, and April is estimated to decline 32% year-on-year.

According to the statistics of the number of domestic automobile manufacturers in April 2022 (as of April 17), BYD sales are far ahead of other automobile enterprises, with sales reaching only ten thousand vehicles as high as 12. Specifically, as of April 17, BYD had 35743 vehicles, making it the only car company to grow, up 89% year-on-year in sharp contrast to other automakers. After BYD, other automobile manufacturers performed "miserably", among which FAW Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen, represented by Germany, fell by 64% and 66% respectively, Beijing Benz, also represented by Germany, also fell by 55%, and only 13698 vehicles were sold in half a month. Guangzhou Automobile Toyota, Guangzhou Automobile Honda, Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan and FAW Toyota, represented by Japan, also fell sharply. Guangzhou Automobile Toyota, which fell by 37% year-on-year, had the smallest decline among Japanese brands. Dongfeng Nissan, which fell 60% year-on-year, fell the most among Japanese brands. In addition, self-owned brands also fell, among which Chang 'an Automobile fell 55% to 19149 vehicles, Geely Automobile fell 55% year-on-year to 18832 vehicles, Great Wall Automobile fell 59% year-on-year to 15048 vehicles, Chery Automobile fell 29% year-on-year to 12900 vehicles. It is not difficult to see from the data that the domestic passenger car pattern will be adjusted again in April, and BYD will become the top passenger car brand with a high probability.

Why is BYD able to achieve sales growth? Data show that BYD's new energy passenger car sales in March was 104,000 vehicles, up 346.1% year-on-year. Since BYD stopped producing fuel vehicles in March, BYD sold 35746 vehicles as of April 17 basically from new energy vehicles. However, although the year-on-year growth of 89% beat the market, but compared with the previous month is significantly less than, the side reflects the lack of core electricity and the impact of the epidemic on BYD. At present, BYD is very popular in the domestic market, but it is difficult to get out under the influence of parts supply and epidemic situation. Of course, unlike other car companies, BYD is both an automobile manufacturer and a battery supplier, and its self-developed and produced blade batteries can at least avoid the problem of "neck" because it has a relatively complete supply chain. In addition, BYD has factories in Shenzhen, Xi'an, Changsha and other places, and the epidemic situation in these factories is not serious compared with Jilin, Shanghai and so on, which restricts more local sales than BYD's production.

Changchun City is the headquarters of FAW, while Shanghai City is the headquarters of SAIC Group. Affected by the epidemic situation in Jilin and Shanghai, the sales volume of FAW series and SAIC series plummeted one after another, among which FAW-Volkswagen fell 64% year-on-year to 28554 vehicles, SAIC Volkswagen fell 66% year-on-year to 18732 vehicles, SAIC GM fell 68% year-on-year to 17096 vehicles, and SAIC GM Wuling fell 41% year-on-year to 15651 vehicles. FAW Toyota fell 52% year-on-year to 14520 vehicles. In terms of market, affected by the epidemic situation, China FAW decided on March 13 that Changchun's five complete vehicle factories, including FAW Toyota and FAW-Volkswagen, had plans to stop production, and did not fully start to resume work until April 11, and stopped production for nearly one month. Also in the middle and late March, including SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, Tesla, etc. also announced the sixth consecutive suspension of production, until April 19 announced the resumption of production.

Affected by the epidemic situation in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, suppliers including Marelli, SL of Japan, Bentler, Ambofu, Eberh, Autoliv, Schaeffler, Kautes Delon, Kerui Shi, Bondi of Britain, Valeo, ZF, Daliu, Mahler, Denso, Junsheng Electronics, Sumitomo, Hela, Faurecia, American Lear, Yanfeng, etc. were forced to stop production, including Great Wall Motor, Chang 'an Automobile, Dongfeng Nissan, GAC Honda, GAC Toyota, etc. Affected by this, As a result, some production lines were shut down or semi-shut down. As Li Bin, chairman of NIO Automobile, said,"A car cannot be produced without a part." Whether the automobile manufacturer can produce normally depends on the guarantee and ability of the upstream unit for raw materials and parts.

On April 14, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, and Yu Chengdong, Huawei's consumer business, said on social platforms,"If Shanghai and surrounding supply chain enterprises still can't find a way to resume production dynamically, all automobile factories in China may stop production in May." At present, under the coordination at the government level and the active response of vehicle enterprises, supply chain enterprises and supporting enterprises, Shanghai and Jilin have been restarted for six times. In May, there may not be a tragic situation of shutdown of vehicle factories, but in the short term, it is not optimistic. Earlier, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the association, said that the automobile industry chain temporarily static losses caused by the outbreak of Shanghai epidemic situation are huge, the impact of supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter, the trend of the second quarter depends on the recovery speed of Shanghai under the epidemic situation, and retail sales are expected to achieve zero growth throughout the year.

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