AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)05/09 Report--

According to the calculation of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAA), China's automobile sales are expected to be 1.171 million in April 2022, down 47.6% from the previous month and 48.1% from the same period last year. According to the preliminary statistics of the Joint Association of passenger car Market Information (hereinafter referred to as the Joint Association of passenger car Market), retail sales in the national passenger car market in April were 1.052 million, down 35% from the same period last year and 33% from the previous year. In addition, the inventory warning index of Chinese car dealers in April was 66.4%, up 10% from a year earlier, according to the China Automobile Circulation Association.

It should be noted that the China Automobile Association announces wholesale sales and the Federation announces retail sales, and the two are closely related. The so-called wholesale sales refers to the total amount of bulk goods supplied by automobile companies to dealers in a certain period, while retail sales refer to the total amount of automobile products sold by dealers. In any case, wholesale sales will eventually be converted into retail sales, and wholesale sales will generally be higher than retail sales, if the two can not be converted in time, dealer inventory will be generated. As for which of the two is more valuable? For individual consumers, retail sales are of more reference value, directly reflecting the sales of automobile products in the end market, while under the influence of the current epidemic, the supply of spare parts and the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, wholesale sales can better reflect the situation faced by car companies.

Under the attack of the epidemic and the supply of spare parts, domestic car companies have not been comfortable in the past month. On May Day, the new forces of Chinese car-making released their April delivery papers one after another, of which Xiaopeng, NIO and ideal were 9002, 5074 and 4167 respectively, with a month-on-month decline of 41.6%, 49.2% and 62.2%, respectively. Shen Yanan, co-founder and president, said that the epidemic caused some suppliers in Shanghai and Kunming to be unable to supply, and some even stopped production or transportation. Therefore, after the consumption of inventory parts, it is impossible to replenish and maintain production. Of course, Zero and Nezha also performed well, with deliveries of 9087 and 8813, respectively, but the overall delivery tone in April was almost finalised.

SAIC, for example, sold 166600 vehicles wholesale in April 2022, down 40.3% from 419500 in the same period in 2021. Among them, as the troika of the group, the sales of SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM Wuling all dropped sharply compared with the same period last year, with SAIC-Volkswagen down 72.29% to 30000, SAIC-GM down 70.44% to 23800, and SAIC-GM Wuling down 43.57% to 76000.

The reason for the collective collapse in SAIC sales is conceivable. In April, affected by the epidemic in Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang, including SAIC-Volkswagen, Tesla and other vehicle companies, as well as suppliers such as Marelli, Ambofo, Valeo, ZF, Denso, Qunsheng Electronics, Sumitomo, and Fogia, they were forced to stop production until mid-late April, and even so, it would take a long time to climb the slope to return to pre-epidemic levels.

At the same time, as Shanghai is an important city of China's automobile industry, the month-long shutdown has a direct impact on the development of China's automobile industry. Take GAC GROUP as an example, the group's wholesale sales fell 33.56% year-on-year to 124300 vehicles in April, including Guangzhou Auto Honda down 66.35% year-on-year to 23900 vehicles, Guangzhou Auto Toyota down 7.27% to 68500 vehicles and GAC MOTOR 21.84% year-on-year to 20100 vehicles.

According to the statistics of the China Automobile Circulation Association, dealers in 34 of the 94 cities surveyed were closed due to the impact of the epidemic. Among the dealers who have closed their shops, more than 60% of them have been closed for more than a week, and the epidemic has a serious impact on their overall operation. Dealers affected by this, offline auto show can not be held, new car listing rhythm overall adjustment, only rely on online marketing effect is limited, resulting in a serious decline in passenger flow and transactions. At the same time, the transportation of new cars is limited, the pace of new car delivery slows down, some orders are lost, and cash flow is tight.

The epidemic still has a heavy impact on China's automobile manufacturing industry. in addition to the impact on production and sales, it is well known that March to May is the concentrated release period of new cars, and due to the prevention and control of the epidemic, the release of a number of new cars has been postponed. In addition, the Beijing auto show has been postponed, and many new cars have been released online. Due to the lack of offline atmosphere and real experience, the marketing effect has been greatly reduced. At the same time, due to the travel restrictions caused by the epidemic, the buying enthusiasm of many potential consumers also tends to be exhausted. A survey shows that many consumers who have intended to buy cars have postponed their purchase plans, and the public's attitude towards buying bulk products has been quite rational and cautious.

As for how to get to the car market in May? At present, there may be a period of lukewarm demand. In May, the epidemic in some domestic cities has not been effectively contained, such as the upgrading of prevention and control policies in Beijing and other places, resulting in transportation delays affecting the delivery of new cars by dealers. At the same time, consumers are expected to cut prices due to factors such as rising oil prices, supply of spare parts, higher prices of new energy and traditional energy vehicles, and demand for cars with a risk aversion mentality will be delayed. The weakening of terminal demand has further curbed the recovery of the car market. Of course, as the epidemic moderates, it is expected to return to pre-epidemic levels by June or July, but it is also difficult to make up for market losses from March to May.

It is worth mentioning that the relevant state departments and local governments have issued positive policies to stimulate automobile consumption in order to boost the automobile market. On April 20, the General Office of the State Council issued the opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting the sustained recovery of consumption, calling for a steady increase in bulk consumption such as automobiles, and no new car purchase restrictions in all regions. at the same time, it is required that the purchase restrictions on cars in the restricted areas should be gradually lifted in accordance with local conditions, so as to promote the transformation of automobile and other consumer goods from purchase management to use management.

On April 29, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the announcement of subsidy activities for the purchase of New Energy vehicles. From May 1 to June 30, 2022, individual consumers who purchase new energy vehicles within the scope of the "Guangdong Automobile Trade for clunkers Special Action" promotion model and complete the registration of motor vehicles in the province may apply for a subsidy of 8000 yuan for the comprehensive use of new energy vehicles. During the period from May to June, on the original basis, Guangzhou added 30,000 car purchase targets and Shenzhen added 10,000 car purchase indicators in order to better meet the needs of the masses for car purchase, and stipulated that all localities should not introduce measures to restrict car purchase.

The introduction of a series of policies is beneficial to the recovery of the automobile market. However, although governments such as Guangdong and Beijing have or have planned to issue consumption vouchers to the public to stimulate consumption, basically, people's consumer confidence and desire have been affected. "the consumption plans of most consumers will change with the economic situation." many people will choose to cancel car consumption.

Welcome to subscribe to the WeChat public account "Automotive Industry Focus" to get the first-hand insider information on the automotive industry and talk about things in the automotive circle. Welcome to break the news! WeChat ID autoWechat