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The Russian auto industry has been hit hard again! Sales of passenger and light commercial vehicles in Russia fell 82 per cent year-on-year to 27761 in June 2022, according to figures released by the Russian European Enterprise Association (AEB). In recent months, Russian car sales have plummeted from a year earlier, with car sales falling 83.5 per cent in May, 78.5 per cent in April and 62.9 per cent in March. In addition, Russian car sales totaled 370228 from January to June in 2022, down 58 per cent from the same period last year.

As for the reasons for the decline of the Russian automobile market, one is that since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a number of European car brands have stopped domestic production or suspended the export of their products to Russia, and the other is that the level of localization of Russian cars is very low, most of the parts rely on imports, and the production of some mainframe factories whose parts are not in place has been hindered. It is understood that Russian auto parts suppliers usually prepare 3-4 weeks of inventory, so Russian car sales did not decline significantly at the initial stage, but with the passage of time, Russia is facing increasing pressure on car production, coupled with logistics and exchange rate, the supply of some parts has been disrupted.

According to previous reports, only two of Russia's more than 20 vehicle manufacturing plants are in operation, including Harvard, owned by Great Wall, and UAZ-branded off-road vehicles owned by Russian carmaker Sollers Group, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the withdrawal of major car companies from the Russian market.

Due to European and American sanctions, a number of car companies, including Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Toyota and Nissan, have suspended production in Russia since the beginning of March, while some have stopped exporting cars to Russia. On May 16th, Renault announced the sale of all its assets in Russia, selling its 100% stake in Renault Russia to the Moscow municipal government, and its stake in AvtoVAZ to the Russian National Institute of Automotive Engineering (NAMI), which means that Renault will withdraw from Russia completely. Despite the high cost of divestment, it had no choice but to make this decision. Data show that Renault sold 28246 vehicles in Russia from January to June in 2022, down 59.7 per cent from a year earlier, of which 1834 were sold in June, down 86.2 per cent from a year earlier.

On June 28, Nissan CEO Cheng Uchida said that the company had suspended operations in Russia in the first half of the fiscal year (April 1, 2022 to September 30, 2022) because of the slim prospect of improving the situation in Russia and Ukraine. "We think the situation in Russia and Ukraine may become more serious and lasting," a Nissan spokesman quoted Mr. Uchida as saying at the company's annual shareholders' meeting. " Mr. Uchida revealed that workers have been informed that the company will continue to monitor the situation and minimize the impact.

Judging from the top 10 Russian brands in car sales, most car brands halved in the first half of the year. Among them, local car company Lada ranked first, with cumulative sales falling 62.7% year-on-year to 74714 vehicles from January to June, followed by Kia, down 57.9% to 45571 vehicles. In addition, including Hyundai, Volkswagen, Renault, Skoda, Nissan, Mazda, Toyota and Peugeot all fell by more than 50%. Among them, the Harvard brand from China entered the top 10, but fell 28.2% year-on-year to 11652 vehicles. In terms of specific models, more than 99% of the models showed a sharp decline, and only Harvard Jolion from China achieved year-on-year growth, with cumulative sales of 5296 vehicles from January to June, up 418.2% from the same period last year.

Chinese brands are gaining market share in Russia, accounting for 12.3 per cent of the total Russian car market in June, compared with 10.6 per cent in the first half, with Harvard up 418.2 per cent to 5296 and Geely down 15.6 per cent from a year earlier to 7910. It is understood that Great Wall has a factory in Russia that produces Harvard F7, F7x and Harvard H9 models, with sales of 39000 vehicles in 2021. Geely and Chery, two other Chinese brands, exported 25000 and 37000 cars to Russia in 2021, respectively.

The latest data released by Russian auto industry analyst Autostat show that the share of Chinese brands in the Russian market continues to rise, with Chinese brands second only to Russian brands and Korean brands in the Russian market. "Chinese brands also face parts shortages, but they are better off than other foreign brands," said Sergey Burgazliev, a senior analyst for the Russian auto industry. The Russian government welcomes new players from China, India and all other players who want to enter the Russian market and replace European car brands. They can choose to buy local car factories in Russia at very low prices, or set up joint ventures in Russia, or sell car licenses to become CKD (full parts assembly) suppliers. "

Avtostat, a Russian auto market analyst, had predicted that by the end of this year, the Russian auto market would decline back to where it was 15 years ago. According to Sergey, there has been a sharp decline in the market, and if the situation continues to deteriorate, passenger car sales are expected to reach 50-550000 by the end of this year, compared with 1.5 million in Russia in 2021, meaning that passenger car sales in Russia are likely to decline by as much as 60 per cent this year.

According to reports, Russia's TASS news agency quoted Russian truck and engine maker KAMAZ as saying that the company plans to launch five models under the "Moskvich" brand, including four cross-border cars and a car. Reported that the Moscow municipal government and Camus signed an agreement to cooperate in the development of passenger cars, Camas will provide the "Muscovites" car factory with the necessary number of spare parts from friendly countries for assembly and production.

It is understood that Muscovites, founded in 1930, occupied the leading position of the Russian automobile industry in the 1970s and 1980s, and were once regarded as a banner of the Soviet automobile industry, but later because of improper management, they had no choice but to stop production after owning a huge debt. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin (Sergei Sobyanin) said, "in 2022, we will turn a new page in the history of Muscovites." However, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the production of "Muscovites" brand cars will be very difficult, and the whole country is waiting for the results of the work.

It is worth noting that according to Russian news agencies, Russian newspaper and other media reports and pictures, the five models of the "Muscovite" brand are very similar in appearance to the Chinese Jianghuai brand Jiayue X4 (and its electric version), X7, Sihao X6 and A5 plus.

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