AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)12/06 Report--

For a long time, dealer inventory early warning index has been regarded as a "barometer" of domestic automobile market demand, and its level reflects the circulation situation of China's automobile market. A few days ago, the latest issue of the inventory early warning Index Survey of China Automobile Dealers released by the China Automobile Circulation Association shows that the inventory early warning index of Chinese car dealers in November 2022 was 65.3%, up 9.9% from the same period last year and 6.3% higher than the previous month. The inventory early warning index is above the line of rise and fall.

It is understood that the inventory early warning index adopts the method of expanding index, with 50% as the rise and fall line, and less than 50% are in a reasonable range, while in November it reached 65.3%, which means that the current dealer inventory index significantly exceeds the inventory safety line, and the domestic automobile production and sales environment is very severe. The association said that affected by the epidemic and control, 41% of dealers closed their shops, most of which were closed for more than two weeks. In addition, 73% of dealers are unable to complete sales tasks, and 61% of them have a task completion rate of less than 80%.

The reason is still due to the impact of the epidemic. In November, the epidemic developed rapidly and the spread continued to expand, and the sales performance of the car market was lower than expected. Affected by the control of the epidemic, local auto shows and marketing activities cannot be carried out smoothly, the automobile market is relatively silent, passenger flow inevitably drops sharply, and the release of consumer demand for cars is hindered, which has a great impact on store management, new car sales, after-sales service and even the used car market. Superimposed by factors such as the increase of inventory and the shortage of liquidity, some dealers began to implement layoffs and salary reduction measures, resulting in a surge of business pressure on dealers.

In fact, in September and October, the traditional peak sales season, the sales performance of most car dealers fell short of expectations. On the one hand, affected by the new epidemic in various places, many dealers are unable to carry out promotional activities, showing the current situation of "peak season is not prosperous". On the other hand, due to the purchase tax reduction policy, the consumer demand for cars has been basically released from June to September, and the market demand is relatively low after being overdrawn.

It is understood that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, which has lasted for 13 years, will be officially withdrawn at the end of the year, which will directly affect the price of new energy vehicle products. BYD, GAC Ean and other brands have announced that prices will rise in 2023. At the same time, the half-year policy of halving the vehicle purchase tax on fuel vehicles will expire at the end of this year. As a result, most dealers are more pessimistic about the market in December, believing that the uncertain factors of the epidemic are large, it is difficult for the car market to reproduce the heat at the end of previous years, and the possibility of a warped tail market is greatly reduced.

In response, the China Automobile Circulation Association expressed the hope that the government will continue the 2022 policy of halving purchase tax and expand the benefits to cover all passenger cars. At the same time, it is hoped that the promotion policies of local governments, such as cash subsidies, rent slowdown, and issuance of car purchase coupons, will continue to be introduced, calling on mainframe factories to appropriately adjust the sales targets of dealers according to the actual situation of the epidemic, so as to reduce the pressure on dealers' inventory and funds.

Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that if the policy of halving the purchase tax is not continued next year, the domestic car market will see tail-warped growth in the fourth quarter of this year. "consumers will seize the tail of this policy dividend to speed up car purchases, and companies will speed up supply." At the same time, Chen Shihua is also worried about policy-driven advance consumption, which does not rule out a significant decline in domestic car market sales at the beginning of next year, or even a cliff decline.

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