AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)12/28 Report--

Due to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus variant in major Chinese cities, the company faces production and delivery challenges and some supply chain constraints, the company said in an announcement on December 27th. the company lowered its fourth-quarter delivery forecast from 43000-48000 to 38500-39500. From the point of view of the downgrade, the adjustment range of Lulai is 10% to 18%.

Relevant data show that the cumulative sales of Xilai cars from January to November in 2022 were 105108, an increase of 30.76% over the same period last year. Of these, 14153 were sold in November and 10059 in October. According to the adjusted delivery expectations, it will take at least 14288 new cars to deliver in December to meet the target. It should be easy to reach the target with reference to the November sales of Lulai.

It is worth noting that since the second half of this year, the capacity problem of Lulai has been affected. Among them, due to the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, Lulai's F1 and F2 plants in Hefei stopped production one after another in October, resulting in the loss of at least 2000 to 3000 vehicles in October, while the Hefei F2 plant, which focuses on the production of ET5, was also affected.

It is understood that the F1 factory is the main production force at present, mainly producing models such as ES8, ES6, EC6, ET7 and ES7, with an annual planned capacity of 300000 vehicles; F2 factory began to officially put into production in the third quarter of this year, and the main production model is ET5, which is still in the production capacity climbing stage. In November, Lvlai Li Bin said in the earnings call that the company's production has resumed, the new production line will drive the production capacity to climb, and it is expected that the ET5 production capacity will meet expectations in December. At the same time, Li Bin also pointed out that the short-term fluctuation of the company's production capacity is difficult to predict, and the entire supply chain capacity can support next year's delivery target. Overall, there are still challenges in the supply chain, and December deliveries will be limited by power semiconductors.

Although it has lowered its sales forecast for the fourth quarter, NIO has not stopped its outlook and planning for long-term delivery targets. At the NIODay2022 on December 24, Li Bin said that the sales of Lexus fuel vehicles will certainly exceed that of Lexus next year, although the sales of Lexus fuel vehicles will definitely exceed those of BMW Mercedes-Benz Audi, adding that he is very confident about this goal. Qin Lihong, president of Xilai, also said to this goal: there is little pressure to achieve this goal. Lexus is expected to sell about 200000 vehicles this year, and it is likely that full-year sales will reach 200000 next year. According to relevant data, Lexus sold a total of 156000 vehicles in China from January to October this year, compared with about 226000 in 2021.

Expectations are good, but building cars is a continuous "money-burning" project. For the current NIO car, sales are increasing, but the profit has not been turned into a regular profit, and the gross profit margin is still at a low level, which is still in the state of "more and more losses".

According to the third-quarter results released by Xilai Automobile, the total revenue in the third quarter was 13.0021 billion yuan, up 32.6% from the same period last year and 26.3% from the previous year; the net loss was 4.111 billion yuan, up 392.1% from the same period last year and 49.1% from the previous year; the net loss attributed to ordinary shareholders was 4.142 billion yuan, up 44.9% from the same period last year and 50.9% from the previous year The net loss of NIO in the first three quarters was 8.712 billion yuan, of which the net loss in the first half was 4.57 billion yuan, and the net loss in the third quarter almost reached the level of the first half of the year. Due to the continuous increase in various expenses, NIO will lose 110000 yuan for every car sold. With regard to the profit of Lai Automobile, Li Bin has said that it will be able to break even in the fourth quarter of 2023.

At present, NIO has seven products including ES8, ES7, ES6, ET7, ET5, EC7 and EC6, covering SUV and sedan models, all of which are priced at more than 300000 yuan. With the delivery of EC7 and the new generation of ES8, it will also increase the sales of Lulai to some extent. According to the official disclosure of the company, three new cars will be launched in 2023, when the product matrix of the car will continue to expand, and its competitiveness in the high-end pure electricity market will also be gradually strengthened. In the short term, the car is in a good state of development, but it is still a challenge for NIO to achieve the goal of breaking even in 2023. Up to now, the cumulative loss of Xilai Motor has exceeded 70 billion yuan.

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