AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)01/19 Report--

"lack of core" is still the key word in the automobile industry in the past 2022. According to the latest data from automotive industry data forecasting company AutoForecast Solutions ("AFS"), the global automobile market has lost a total of 4.38 million new cars in 2022 due to the shortage of chips, but the shortage of chips in 2022 has improved significantly compared with 10.56 million in 2021.

Although the shortage of chips continues to ease in 2023, some car companies still need to adjust their production plans to solve this problem. On January 18, Toyota announced production for February 2023 on its website. Toyota said it expected global production of 750000 vehicles in February (of which about 300000 in Japan's domestic market and 450000 in overseas markets) due to the spread of COVID-19 infection and a shortage of components such as semiconductors. For comparison, Toyota produced 740996 vehicles worldwide in February 2022, higher than its expected production target of 700000.

According to Toyota's latest shutdown plan, of a total of 28 production lines in Toyota's 14 factories in Japan in February, only 3 production lines at the Wancho plant were suspended for a total of 2 days and 3 days, respectively. The affected models include MIRAI, Crown, bZ4X, Subaru Solterra, Lexus LC, GR Yaris and other models. In the announcement, Toyota stressed that it will pay close attention to the supply of semiconductors and other components and work closely with relevant suppliers to ensure that as many vehicles as possible are delivered to customers as soon as possible.

Hit by external factors such as rising raw material costs and persistent shortages of semiconductors and chips in November 2022, Toyota announced that its global production target for the current fiscal year (April 2022-March 2023) would be cut by 500000 vehicles, from 9.7 million to 9.2 million vehicles, but still higher than the 8.6 million vehicles in the previous fiscal year. Thanks to the improvement in the auto parts supply chain, Toyota announced on its official website the benchmark for production in 2023. Toyota said that Toyota will increase its production capacity to 10.6 million in 2023. It is currently striving to achieve the production ceiling of 10.6 million vehicles in 2023, but Toyota also said that due to the impact of potential factors such as the shortage of semiconductors and the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Toyota's production forecast for 10.6 million vehicles is at risk of being lowered. Kazunari Kumakura, Toyota's purchasing director, said that if the semiconductor shortage does not continue to improve in 2023, actual production could be less than the forecast of 10.6 million vehicles.

For Japanese car companies, uncertain factors such as the global shortage of parts, the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 have a particularly obvious impact on the overall production situation, and repeated capacity cuts have also directly put pressure on the sales of Japanese car companies. Japan sold 4.2 million vehicles in 2022, down 5.6% from a year earlier and the lowest level in 45 years, according to the data. In addition to the Japanese market, the US market is also on a downward trend, with Honda's cumulative sales in the US falling 32.9 per cent year on year to 983500, Toyota's sales down 9.6 per cent to 2.1085 million, Nissan's sales down 25.4 per cent to 729400 and Mazda down 11.4 per cent to 294900.

As for the Chinese market, sales of four Japanese models in 2022, including Toyota China, Honda China, Nissan China and Mazda China, also showed varying degrees of decline, of which Toyota China sales fell 0.2% year-on-year to 1.9406 million vehicles, the first year-on-year decline in China in a decade; Honda China fell 12.07% to 1.3731 million vehicles; Nissan China fell 22.1% to 1.045 million vehicles. Changan Mazda fell 21.43% year-on-year to 104000 vehicles.

"Automotive Industry concern" believes that the main reason why Japanese car companies are facing varying degrees of decline in different markets is related to the impact of insufficient inventory of new cars caused by the epidemic and supply chain chaos. In 2022, including Toyota, Honda, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Nissan and other car companies have suffered production suspension or reduction, the negative impact of capacity constraints also directly led to the decline of new car sales is becoming more and more obvious. Of course, the deeper reason is also related to the current development direction of Japanese car companies. Taking the Chinese market as an example, many joint ventures of Japanese car companies in China were overtaken by Chinese brands in 2022. Among the five joint ventures of Toyota, Honda and Nissan in the annual top15 ranking of retail sales of manufacturers in 2022, only GAC Toyota achieved growth and ranked seventh with 971500 vehicle sales. FAW Toyota also entered the 10th list, but fell 5.60% year on year. Dongfeng Nissan, Guangzhou Auto Honda and Dongfeng Honda fell 20.9%, 6.2% and 17.8%, respectively.

According to the latest data of AFS, as of January 15, the cumulative production reduction in the global automobile market in 2023 is about 219100 vehicles, that is to say, the shortage of chips in the automobile industry in 2023 is not over. AFS predicts that the global automobile market will reduce production by more than 2.77 million vehicles in 2023. However, Japanese automakers say the problem of supply constraints is expected to ease in 2023.

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