AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)11/12 Report--

According to 36Kr, the domestic car-building new power company has passed on the sales forecast for 2024 to the supply side. Among them, ideal car sales are expected to exceed 800000 in 2024, NIO is expected to exceed 230000, and Xiaopeng is expected to exceed 280000. To refine these targets to monthly, the ideal car needs to complete about 67000 per month, the company needs to complete about 19000 per month, and Xiaopeng needs to complete about 23000 per month. It should be noted that the above sales forecasts do not include sub-brands.

In the fourth quarter of each year, car companies usually send next year's sales plans to the supply chain to promote the latter to make material, capacity, personnel and capital reserves, but car companies usually give high forecasts, and the supply chain will also be based on the competitiveness of models and the operating performance of car companies. Make your own judgment. The relevant sales forecast data are more for reference. At present, there is no official response to the report on the sales target of "Wei Xiaoli" in 2024.

Previously, ideal cars had set extremely aggressive sales targets. Ideal car CEO Li Xiang said that the goal of ideal car in 2025 is to achieve the first sales of all luxury brands in the Chinese market (that is, the first sales of all passenger cars over 200000 yuan), with a delivery volume of 1.6 million vehicles per year. Therefore, it seems reasonable to forecast ideal car sales of more than 800000 units in 2024.

According to the plan, ideal Automobile will release the first pure electric flagship MPV-- ideal MEGA in the fourth quarter, and the goal is to become the first selling product of more than 500000, regardless of energy form and body form. In addition, the ideal car will release four new models in 2024, including an extended range SUV and three pure electric models, of which the added program model is the ideal L6, which sells for between 20 yuan and 300000 yuan, making it the first model of the ideal car to sell for less than 300000 yuan.

Li Xiang said at the second-quarter earnings meeting that in 2024, he will challenge the sales of BBA in China ahead of time and strive to become the No. 1 luxury brand by sales in the Chinese market. Judging from the current market, as independent brands enter the high-end market, the market share of traditional luxury brands has been eroded by independent brands. In the first 10 months of 2023, brilliance BMW sold 575700, FAW-Audi 507400 and Beijing Mercedes-Benz 490600. If the ideal car sells 800000 in 2024, there is hope to challenge BBA sales in China. This further validates the forecast of the ideal car sales target of 800000 vehicles in 2024.

In contrast, NIO and Xiaopeng cars will enter a stable period, especially NIO. In 2023, the market performance of NIO is not ideal, mainly due to the control error of intergenerational switching of NIO products, which led to the trough of sales, while with the comprehensive switching of ES6, ES8, EC6 and other models to the second generation platform, NIO finally ushered in a short period of stability. Judging from the latest delivery situation, NIO delivered 16100 new cars in October, an increase of 59.9% over the same period last year and 2.8% from the previous month. By the end of October, NIO had delivered a total of 126100 new cars, an increase of 36.3% over the same period last year.

It is understood that in 2024, NIO will not launch new models, but will focus on the sub-brand-Alps brand, the first model will be launched in 2024. At present, there are seven models on sale, including ES8, ES6, EC6, EC7, ET5/ET5T and ET7, which also means that it needs to maintain sales of nearly 20, 000 per month without new cars.

At present, NIO is also adjusting and optimizing internally. On November 3, Li Bin released a full-staff letter to his employees, confirming that he would lose about 10% of his jobs. At the same time, Alps, a subsidiary of Ulai, has also been exposed to layoffs, or is no longer a stand-alone project.

Xiaopeng is similar, and sales have begun to pick up in recent months. By the end of October, Xiaopeng delivered a total of 101400 vehicles, down 2.13% from the same period last year, of which 20000 were delivered in October, an increase of 292.12% over the same period last year. If Xiaopeng continues to deliver 20, 000 vehicles a month in the next two months, sales are expected to be about 140000 in 2023 and 280000 in 2024, equivalent to doubling.

At present, Xiaopeng car models on sale include G3, P7, P5, G6, G9. Before the end of the year, Xiaopeng will launch the first pure electric MPV-- Xiaopeng X9, which is also regarded as a flagship product, but according to the current performance of the MPV market, the sales of this model will not be very high. From the perspective of subdivided models, Xiaopeng still relies heavily on P7 and G6 models.

Different from ideal car and Ulai, multi-brand will become the development center of Xiaopeng automobile in the future. Xiaopeng signed a share purchase agreement with Didi Group to acquire Didi's smart car development assets for a total consideration of 5.835 billion Hong Kong dollars (US $744 million), Xiaopeng announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Aug. 25. At the same time, Xiaopeng signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Didi Group, the two sides will launch a new electric vehicle brand, the project is "MONA", the first product is A-class intelligent electric vehicle, priced at about 150000 yuan, will be mass produced in 2024, and will be sold to both C-end and B-end. In addition to working together to create new brand models, the two sides will also explore cooperation in the operation, brand marketing, financial and insurance services, charging facilities, Robotaxi and international market of Xiaopeng models on Didi platform.

Earlier, Volkswagen announced that it would take a stake in Xiaopeng Motor, and the two sides signed a framework agreement on strategic technical cooperation and minority equity investment, and reached a long-term strategic partnership. It is understood that the two sides plan to jointly develop two Volkswagen brand electric models for China's medium-sized car market, in which Xiaopeng will contribute a complete vehicle platform as well as an intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving system. Volkswagen, on the other hand, provides the world's leading engineering and supply chain capabilities, both of which hang the Volkswagen logo and plan to launch to the market in 2026.

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