AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)05/10 Report--

China's auto market ushered in a major turning point in 2018, with the market downturn and declining sales continuing to this day. According to the latest passenger car sales data released by the Federation of passenger cars in China, retail sales of cars across the country fell 18% in April from a year earlier, while wholesale sales fell 22% from a year earlier. This means that car sales in China have declined for 11 consecutive months, with double-digit declines in the first four months of this year, with a trend of further expansion.

As a matter of fact, since the beginning of this year, the national government has implemented the policy of going to the countryside and reducing the VAT rate to stimulate automobile consumption, but in the past few months, it has not achieved much success, and consumers' depressed mood of buying new cars has not improved significantly. While manufacturers and dealers continue to be under pressure, sales decline.

The pressure of the sixth grade

Starting from July this year, major cities across the country will implement the national six emission standards. China will enter the sixth national era, and the switching of national six models will have a great impact on new car sales. During this period, consumers wait and see the national six model switching policy, holding money for purchase; manufacturers speed up the launch of national six emission models to meet the market; dealers are faced with the pressure to clear the inventory of national five models.

The association believes that the car market is extremely depressed this year, and the channel inventory pressure before the implementation of the sixth year was originally small, but it brought greater psychological pressure on dealers under the lower consumer demand. At present, the inventory adjustment pressure of dealers is still great, and inventory reduction is needed.

The FIFA has rarely pointed out that there should be a reasonable cycle for the implementation of the sixth national standard. Country 3 emissions were implemented in July 2008, country 4 emissions were implemented in July 2013 after an interval of six years, and country 5 emission standards were implemented nationwide in July 2017 after an interval of four years. The sixth national emission model is the national standard to be implemented in 2023, and now it will be implemented four years ahead of schedule, so it is normal for enterprises to be inadequately prepared at present. The implementation of the sixth national standard of local governments should leave a longer transition period for the national fifth model.

Dealer pressure

In the April "Automobile Dealer inventory early warning Index" report released by the China Automobile Association, the inventory early warning index reached 61% in April, up 5.7% from the previous month and 6.47% from the same period last year. The inventory early warning index is still above the standard 50% warning line. So far, it has exceeded the warning line for 16 consecutive months.

In the process of intensified market competition, the current situation of car dealers has not changed much, and inventory is still at a high level.

The inventory warning index of independent brands is the highest, reaching 69.2%; both luxury brands and mainstream joint venture brands are close to 60%, of which the luxury brand inventory index rose by 9.1% in April. The number of brands that have been in stock for more than two months is increasing, and some of them even reach three months.

Sales decline, inventory remains high, the business situation of dealers is worrying. In the 2018 Dealer Survival Survey report released by the Circulation Association, 39.3% of dealers lost money in 2018, 27.1% were the same as the previous year, and only 33.1% made a profit.

A new policy to stimulate automobile consumption is expected to be introduced.

In view of the continuing downturn in the auto market, the reduction of VAT was once considered to be another turning point in China's auto market, but in fact it did not bring substantial changes to market sales.

It is reported that the National Development and Reform Commission is formulating relevant policies to boost automobile consumption in an all-round way. Opinions issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on the implementation plan to promote automobile consumption and promote the development of circular economy have been circulated on the Internet. It is clearly forbidden to issue new car purchase restrictions in various localities. The number of license plate increments in 2019 and 2020 must be increased by 50% and 100% respectively on the basis of 2018; new energy vehicles will not be subject to purchase restrictions. Speed up the lifting of restrictions on the entry of pickups into cities, and all restrictions on the process of pickups will be lifted in cities at and below the prefecture level by the end of next year.

The NDRC did not deny the existence of the document and responded that it is learning about policies to stimulate car consumption and that any policy should be repeatedly demonstrated and fully solicited by the parties concerned.

If the policy of comprehensively boosting automobile consumption is implemented vigorously and involves a wide range, once implemented, it may bring about great changes to the domestic automobile environment.

In April, new car sales of Geely, which ranked first in independent sales, fell 19% from a year earlier, while new car sales of SAIC, the largest auto group in China, continued to decline, and the depressed market environment is in urgent need of change.

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