AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)05/19 Report--

Sales have declined for 11 consecutive months, and there is no sign of easing. The persistently depressed environment in China's auto market will continue to break history, gradually falling back from the peak of 28 million vehicles, and the auto industry will also usher in a reshuffle period.

What is the reason why the domestic car market is so depressed? Industry analysts believe that the downturn in the auto market has a lot to do with squeezing consumption in the property market. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Joint passenger car Association and expert committee of the Automobile Circulation Association, said in a post that "the consumption in the car market is extremely poor, and the deceleration of consumption in China is caused by housing prices, superimposed by other factors." However, the erosion effect of real estate on social wealth is very serious. The high growth of debt in recent years has a great impact on the purchasing power of residents, especially on the car market. "

In terms of passenger car (sedan + SUV+MPV) sales, the cumulative sales for the whole of 2018 reached 22.35 million, down 5.8 per cent from a year earlier. The decline in sales has further widened in 2019, with domestic passenger car sales falling 4% in January, 19% in February due to the early Spring Festival, 12.1% in March and 16.9% in April. As a result, the cumulative sales of passenger cars from January to April were 6.595 million, down 11.9% from the same period last year, or nearly 900000.

It is true that the housing loan in the property market is the main cause of the decline in sales power, but the impact of policy can not be ignored. Major consumer cities across the country will formally implement the national six emission standards in July, and the coming May and June will be a turbulent period for the automobile industry.

During this period, consumers hold a wait-and-see attitude even more, the first task of dealers is to speed up the clearance of national five model inventory, there is a serious loss to sell cars, the purchase volume is also relatively cautious, resulting in a sharp decline in the wholesale number of manufacturers. According to the Federation of passengers, retail sales of passenger car manufacturers fell 24% in the first cycle of May (1-10) compared with the same period last year, while wholesale sales plunged 44% from the same period last year. The Federation also pointed out that at present, the implementation of the sixth national standard is relatively radical, and there is no reasonable licensing cycle for inventory models, especially the long selling cycle of inventory tail goods.

From our earlier articles about the downturn in car sales, netizens' comments mostly focused on the discussion of housing prices, the sixth grade, and so on, which roughly explained the problem.

Although the state restarted the automobile policy to the countryside this year, reducing the value-added tax of the automobile manufacturing industry, these policies have not been well utilized, the effect of benefiting consumers is not obvious, sales continue to decline, and the car market shows no sign of picking up.

From the perspective of car companies, it is more intuitive. Among the top 10 domestic car companies, the top three car companies in January to April this year all experienced varying degrees of decline in sales, including FAW-Volkswagen down 4% year on year, SAIC Volkswagen down 10.6%, and SAIC General Motors down as much as 22.2%. Geely, an independent brand with high sales, fell by 13% from January to April, while Changan fell by 28%. SAIC GM Wuling, which focuses on the low-end consumer market, fell by 28.6%.

Judging from the statistical decline in sales of 85 car companies, a total of 27 car companies halved their sales in April, accounting for nearly 32%, mainly focused on their own brands. Among them, five car companies, namely, Quan Zhi Automobile, Haima Automobile, Dongfeng Renault, Dongfeng Yulong and Zhidou Electric, all fell by more than 90%.

(daily car data)

The era of high-growth Chinese cars is gone forever, and dozens of car companies will face a reshuffle as new car sales continue to decline.

Cui Dongshu believes that real estate continued to rise in 2019, the car market is in a serious downturn, and the policy to stimulate automobile consumption should be further implemented this year; the current deficiency in consumption is automobile consumption, which is a huge opportunity. Restraining houses and promoting cars can achieve sound and sustainable economic development.

At present, the NDRC has announced that it will launch a new policy to stimulate automobile consumption, but it needs to be repeatedly demonstrated and fully solicited by the parties concerned before it can be implemented. According to documents disclosed earlier, purchase restrictions, license plate indicators and traffic restrictions will become key improvement targets. It means that consumers' car purchase restrictions will be partially alleviated, waiting for the final promulgation and implementation of the policy.

It is an indisputable fact that consumers are declining in buying new cars. 2019 is the real winter of the automobile industry. How to save the market, the second half of the year will be the most critical time point.

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