AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)07/09 Report--

Recently, the China Automobile Circulation Association (CADA) released China's automobile consumption index in June 2019. From the data, we can see that China's automobile consumption index in June 2019 was only 41.2, down about 26.4% from May, setting a new low in recent years (affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, so the January data is not representative). The overall consumption index shows a downward trend this year. Industry insiders expect a decline in July.

According to the analysis of the China Automobile Circulation Association, July is the off-season of the automobile sales industry, the temperature begins to rise, the southern region also gradually enters the rainy season, and the terminal passenger collection volume of the market stores will be greatly reduced. From May to June, the large terminal discount of the "National five" model stimulates the consumer market, and some potential consumers overdraw ahead of time. With the formal implementation of the "sixth National Day" in July, the terminal price of the automobile market may rise, and most consumers hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the desire to buy is relatively weak, so the automobile consumption index will still decline in July. From the relevant data of "the number of motor vehicles in the country reached 340 million in the first half of this year" issued by the Ministry of Public Security a few days ago, we can also see signs of a decline in the automobile consumption index.

The article mentioned that as of June this year, the number of motor vehicles in the country had reached 340 million, including 250 million cars, and 420 million motor vehicle drivers, including 380 million drivers. According to statistics, the number of cars in the country in the first half of this year was 250 million, of which 198 million were private cars (small passenger cars and mini passenger cars registered in the name of individuals). However, the number of new car registrations in the first half of 1919 was 12.42 million, down 10% from June 18, a decrease of nearly 1.39 million. It can be found that the growth rate of car ownership is slowing down, and the number of new registrations is also declining.

In terms of urban distribution, as of June 19, there were 66 cities with more than 1 million cars in China, an increase of 8 over the same period last year. Among them, 11 cities, including Beijing and Chengdu, have more than 3 million cars, while 29 cities have more than 2 million cars. It is worth noting that both Beijing and Chengdu have more than 5 million cars.

From this data, it is not difficult to find that most of the large and medium-sized cities in China have a good growth rate, and the number of cities with more than one million vehicles is also increasing sharply, but the small cities in the fourth or fifth tier have an overall trend of slowing down. This reflects that the main consumption of China's automobile market is still concentrated in the front-line and surrounding large and medium-sized cities, the automobile consumption desire of small cities is still relatively low, and the mobility of regional personnel is also a big factor. the automobile market in this part of the region is still supported and stimulated by policies. From the perspective of vehicle drivers, with the continuous growth of motor vehicle ownership, the number of motor vehicle drivers also shows a synchronous growth trend. as of June 19, the total number of motor vehicle drivers in China reached 422 million, an increase of 25 million compared with the same period last year. In the first half of 2019, the number of newly licensed drivers reached 14 million.

The age distribution of drivers can also explain the slowdown in the car consumption index, with the largest number of drivers in the 36-50 age group, with 164 million, accounting for 38.88% of the total drivers, while 144 million in the 26-35 age group, accounting for 34.12% of the total number of drivers. 12.21 million, or 2.9%, are over 60 years old. It can be seen from the data that the people aged from 26 to 35 in China are generally post-80s and post-90s, which should be the main consumption force in the market, but their proportion is only the middle level of the total number of people, which obviously reflects that the desire of young people to buy cars in our country is not high, or perhaps their purchasing power has not increased significantly.

The aging trend of drivers is on the rise. last year, there were only 11.23 million drivers over the age of 60, compared with 12.21 million in the first half of this year. The number of drivers over the age of 60 will increase significantly in the future, and the number of people who use cars at this age will have a certain income ability. and in the future to cater to the needs of high-age consumer groups will gradually change into the focus of the market.

From the perspective of relevant data, the automobile consumption market of young consumers in China has not yet erupted.

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