AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)08/28 Report--

China's cumulative passenger car sales from January to July reached 11.44 million, down 8.8 per cent from a year earlier, according to the Federation of passengers. China's auto market experienced a 12-month decline in sales, as the price cut and inventory clearance stimulated consumer demand in June, and then continued to decline in July due to early consumer overdraft. it is also an off-season for sales, and the car-buying environment will remain depressed.

According to the data report released by the Federation of passengers today, whether terminal retail or manufacturer wholesale, China's car market still experienced a double-digit decline in the first three cycles of August, even reaching 20%.

The retail of the passenger car market in the first cycle of August is relatively low, with an average daily retail sales of only 27000 units, down 31% from the same period last year. This is mainly due to the low enthusiasm for car purchases in the car market and the fact that car companies have more holidays, resulting in a slightly slower retail progress. In the second week, retail sales reached an average of 38000 units a day, a year-on-year decline of 12%, which is relatively normal. In the third cycle of August, retail sales reached a daily average of 44000 units, down 17% from the same period last year, reflecting that the market is still slow to improve.

It is worth noting that under the continuous double-digit decline, car retail sales fell by 1.21% in the first three cycles of August compared with the same period last year. If there is no effective improvement in the fourth cycle, the decline of more than 20% will be the biggest drop in the passenger car market since 2019.

In addition, there is no sign of an increase in the number of wholesale manufacturers. The wholesale of the passenger car market in the first week of August was relatively low, with an average daily wholesale of 27000 units in the first week, down as much as 32 per cent from a year earlier. In the second week, the daily average of wholesale reached 40,000, down 8% from the same period last year, and the decline in growth rate has improved. The decline widened again in the third week, with wholesale reaching an average of 48600 units a day, down 14% from a year earlier.

The wholesale volume of manufacturers in the first three cycles of August fell 19% from a year earlier, which is better than the terminal retail volume, but also reflects the problem of higher dealer inventory.

According to the survey report, the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in July was 62.2%, up 11.8% from June and 8.3% from the same period last year. The inventory early warning index is above the warning line, the second highest level of inventory so far this year. It is the early overdraft consumption effect caused by the national five to six countries, resulting in increased inventory pressure on dealers.

However, retail sales at the end of the market were not strong in August, with a decline of more than 20%, and it can be expected that the Chinese car market in August is likely to be very bleak.

In order to stimulate consumption, relevant departments have drawn up implementation plans to boost car sales. At the beginning of June, Guangzhou and Shenzhen announced that the license plate targets would be increased by 100000 and 80, 000 respectively by the end of next year. On 27 August, the General Office of the State Council issued opinions on speeding up the development of circulation to promote commercial consumption, clearly "releasing the potential of automobile consumption." areas that propose the implementation of car purchase restrictions, in the light of the actual situation, explore the implementation of gradual relaxation or abolition of purchase restrictions, and where conditions permit, they will actively support the purchase of new energy vehicles.

Through policies to release suppressed purchasing power, or to promote car consumption in first-and second-tier cities to some extent, but the overall purchasing power is not strong, it will continue for some time.

At the beginning of the year, the China Automobile Association forecast sales of 28 million vehicles in 2019, the same as in 2018. However, China's car sales remained sluggish in the first half of the year, and the China Automobile Association immediately lowered its sales forecast to about 26.68 million vehicles in 2019, down 5 per cent from a year earlier.

The association believes that there is still room for increment in China's auto market, and the wholesale and retail data are bound to improve significantly in the future.

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