AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)09/01 Report--

Entering the second half of 2019, the overall downward trend of industry production and sales has not fundamentally changed, and the monthly double-digit decline continues. China's car sales in July were 1.808 million, down 12.1% from the same period last year. From January to July, sales totaled 14.132 million, down 11.4% from the same period last year.

July and August is the off-season of the traditional car market, and the business situation of car companies and major dealers is not optimistic.

The inventory warning index of car dealers reached 62.2% in July, the second highest level so far this year. Inventory levels improved month-on-month in August, but remain above the warning line.

The China Automobile Circulation Association released a report on the inventory early warning Index of China Automobile Dealers on August 31. The inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in August 2019 was 59.4%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month and up 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory early warning index continues to be above the warning line.

According to the analysis of the association, after the clearance of the treasury, the tightening of promotion policies and the insufficient accumulation of customers of the sixth model are the main reasons for the market downturn in the past two months. At the same time, the regional autumn auto show in September and October is concentrated, and some consumer demand will be delayed during the auto show.

The association also pointed out that the impact of emissions switching gradually decreased in September, the arrival of gold, silver and silver ten traditional peak season, market demand is expected to increase. But September is also the end of the third quarter, dealers will increase the number of tasks and inventory. It is suggested that dealers should estimate the actual market demand rationally and control the inventory level reasonably according to the actual situation, so as to prevent excessive inventory pressure from leading to business risks.

In order to stimulate consumption, the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Office of the State Council have drawn up plans to boost car sales. At the beginning of June, Guangzhou and Shenzhen announced that the license plate targets would be increased by 100000 and 80, 000 respectively by the end of next year. On 27 August, the General Office of the State Council issued opinions on speeding up the development of circulation to promote commercial consumption, clearly "releasing the potential of automobile consumption." areas that propose the implementation of car purchase restrictions, in the light of the actual situation, explore the implementation of gradual relaxation or abolition of purchase restrictions, and where conditions permit, they will actively support the purchase of new energy vehicles.

Through policies to release suppressed purchasing power, or to promote car consumption in first-and second-tier cities to some extent, but the overall purchasing power is not strong, it will continue for some time.

At the beginning of the year, the China Automobile Association forecast sales of 28 million vehicles in 2019, the same as in 2018. However, China's car sales remained sluggish in the first half of the year, and the China Automobile Association immediately lowered its sales forecast to about 26.68 million vehicles in 2019, down 5 per cent from a year earlier.

Compared with the 11.4% decline from January to July, the association believes that there is still room for increment in China's auto market, and retail sales data are bound to improve significantly.

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